Prime minister Attal has pointed out that the man who wants his job, Jordan Bardella, is already equivocating about his key manifesto pledge to reverse the rise in retirement age. It was this issue that provoked mass protests and almost brought down the government. Macron was forced to invoke the president’s rarely used constitutional power to overrule the National Assembly. Once in office Bardella may not want to reopen such a divisive debate — especially as the rising cost of state pensions is astronomical.
Even more importantly, what would a nationalist government do about Russia’s war in Ukraine? In the last presidential election in 2022, Macron was able to destroy Le Pen by accusing her of being in hock to the Kremlin, because her party had borrowed money from Russia. Those loans were paid off, but it is undeniable that the nationalists remain soft on Putin. They see themselves as the peace party and would obstruct Macron’s policy of stepping up aid to Zelensky — let alone sending French troops to Ukraine.
A triumph for Putin
The French constitution gives ultimate control of foreign policy to the president, but if the French electorate imposes a National Rally government on Macron, this will be seen abroad as a triumph for Putin. Is it possible that, under a cohabitation with Bardella, the president might revert to his earlier posture as a peacemaker? That would be another win for Putin.
If the Left is too discredited and the centre cannot hold, could anything else stop the nationalist juggernaut? One answer is: the French electoral system. While Le Pen’s party is on an upward trajectory, so far no poll has given it more than 34 per cent, with the Left on 28 per cent and Macron’s centrists on 18 per cent.
The complex two-round system for the National Assembly means that after the first ballot on June 30, only candidates who win 12.5 per cent of the votes go through to the second round on July 7. Those who don’t make it may offer to “lend” their votes to those who do – but voters may have their own ideas. Many will care less about who gets in than about keeping Le Pen out. Macron is counting on a second-round “Republican Front” to stop her.
With such tactical voting, the National Rally could end up as the largest party but short of a majority. As it has ruled out a coalition, a Left-of-centre government could emerge. France could vote Bardella, but get Glucksmann.
That would certainly not reflect the mood of the country – especially outside Paris and a few other cities. If the result of the election is that the country moves Right but the government moves Left, then angry citizens will take to the streets en masse – on both sides. And then anything can happen.
By the time France celebrates Bastille Day on July 14, we will know whether this election is merely the prologue to an even bigger drama: a new French revolution – a revolution of the Right.