Sports Mole previews Saturday’s friendly clash between New Zealand and England, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
After being separated by just a single point last week in Dunedin, New Zealand and England are set to face off in the second Test of July at Eden Park on Saturday.
England face a daunting task this weekend, travelling to the spiritual home of the All Blacks, who will be out to extend their unprecedented 48-game unbeaten run at this venue.
Match preview
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During the 1980s, touring teams found Parc des Princes in Paris and Ballymore in Brisbane during the 1990s to be graveyards. At the start of the century, Twickenham became a fortress, but none of those records compare to the unparalleled dominance that New Zealand has maintained at Eden Park.
Indeed, Eden Park has been a happy hunting ground for New Zealand for a long while, with their record at the venue including 46 victories and two draws, with their last defeat at the Auckland stadium occurring in 1994 when they lost 23-20 to France.
In fact, since 1921, the All Blacks have lost just 10 Test matches at Eden Park, boasting a win rate of nearly 90%. Since 1994 they have faced 12 different opponents in Auckland and have been successful against all of them.
Among the sides that have felt the strength of the All Blacks at this venue are Australia, who have been the worst affected with 20 defeats in a row, France have lost five times, Ireland, England and South Africa recorded four losses each, and the British and Irish Lions have lost twice.
Last week, England took a two-point lead in the first half, but Ardie Savea‘s try gave the All Blacks a 10-7 advantage. Immanuel Feyi-Waboso put England ahead 15-10 in the second period but Damian McKenzie converted two penalty kicks late on to help the hosts to a narrow 16-15 victory.
The match marked the first Test victory for Scott Robertson, who assumed the role after Ian Foster, following his remarkable tenure with the Crusaders in Super Rugby, and the new boss will undoubtedly be looking to follow that up with another win in this one.
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As England prepare for this weekend’s tussle, a 60-second shot clock will be displayed on the big screen and television broadcast to signal the time remaining for a kicker to take their shot at goal for the second Test.
This decision follows the incident where Damian McKenzie exceeded the time limit set by the referee while lining up a penalty kick during the first Test, which led to the referee handing possession back to England at a crucial juncture.
While the hosts’ playmaker’s blushes were ultimately saved as the All Blacks held on to record victory, the final outcome could have been very different, as England, once they reduced their kicking away of possession, consistently penetrated the All Blacks’ defence, creating numerous chances to deliver a decisive blow.
Throughout the 80 minutes, Steve Borthwick‘s side had the All Blacks scrambling to the point that on more than one occasion, the TV cameras zoomed in on the All Blacks’ coaching box, where Robertson appeared visibly agitated, often slapping the wall behind the dugout in frustration.
Since starting 2024 with a defeat to Scotland and claiming unconvincing victories over Wales and Italy, England have bounced back with a series of promising performances, including a stunning Six Nations victory over Ireland in March, followed by a narrow loss to France in Lyon a week later. They then comprehensively defeated Japan in June, leading up to their promising display last Saturday.
Thus, while England can certainly feel frustrated that they applied enough pressure and created ample opportunities to win the game last week, their performance would have gone a long way to abolishing the notion that they will be unable to replicate a similar performance this week in Auckland, regardless of the All Blacks’ record at this venue.
New Zealand form (all competitions):
England form (all competitions):
Team News
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McKenzie, barring the shot-clock violation, was one of the top performers in last weekend’s nail-biter and it is unsurprising that Robertson has given the fly-half the nod again this week, though he will have a new half-back partner in Finlay Christie, who replaces the injured TJ Perenara.
Cortez Ratima takes Christie’s spot on the bench as the only change to the squad from last week, meaning that veteran Beauden Barrett will have to settle for a spot among the subs again, with Stephen Perofeta retained as the starting full-back.
Similarly, Steve Borthwick has also opted to make just one alteration to the starting 15 he deployed last week, with Fin Baxter set to come into the front row in place of Joe Marler, who is out with a foot injury.
Alex Mitchell and Marcus Smith will make up the halves pairing and George Furbank, Immanuel Feyi-Waboso and Tommy Freeman line up as the back three behind centres Ollie Lawrence and Henry Slade.
New Zealand starting lineup: 15 Stephen Perofeta, 14 Sevu Reece, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Mark Tele’a, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Dalton Papali’i, 6 Samipeni Finau, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 4 Scott Barrett (c), 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot
Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Tupou Vaa’i, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Beauden Barrett
England starting lineup: 15 George Furbank, 14 Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, 13 Henry Slade, 12 Ollie Lawrence, 11 Tommy Freeman, 10 Marcus Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Sam Underhill, 6 Chandler Cunningham-South, 5 George Martin, 4 Maro Itoje, 3 Will Stuart, 2 Jamie George, 1 Fin Baxter
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Bevan Rodd, 18 Dan Cole, 19 Alex Coles, 20 Tom Curry, 21 Ben Spencer, 22 Fin Smith, 23 Ollie Sleightholme
We say: New Zealand 21-18 England
While England came within a whisker of claiming victory last week, they were completely outdone at scrum time, and the absence of Joe Marler this week is far from ideal.
New Zealand’s record here in Auckland is truly remarkable, and while we expect the Red Roses to remain competitive, we fancy the All Blacks to secure the series with a victory.
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