The worldwide number of passenger jets will double to 50,000 planes over the next 20 years as more people embrace flying in defiance of climate campaigners, according to a Boeing forecast.
Soaring passenger numbers will require 1,600 more jets than the US manufacturer estimated a year ago, it said in its latest update, as demand for travel outpaces economic growth.
The retirement of older planes, which emit more CO2, has also slowed to half the usual rate as supply-chain issues limit new deliveries, while average fuel consumption has increased.
Meanwhile, planes are expected to continue flying only 80pc full for the foreseeable future, while the process of squeezing more seats on to each jet is expected to slow.
Boeing’s forecast is a challenge to the so-called flight-shaming movement, which has been encouraging holidaymakers to shun air travel for the sake of the planet.
While the airline industry has committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050, fuel produced from waste cooking oil, seen as key to slashing CO2 output until the advent of new technologies, is costly and available only in very low volumes.
In a further blow to the climate lobby, Boeing also cited an analysis of multiple passenger surveys as indicating that the majority of people plan to take more trips and spend more on them.
Two-thirds of respondents suggested that they aim to fly more than before Covid, while 85pc said they would make travel a spending priority. Average trips will also last a day longer.
Technological advances will tend to act as a global enabler for accessing travel rather than holding back demand as Zoom calls proliferate, Boeing said.
The average global airfare has barely budged in 20 years even as overall consumer prices have doubled, making flights comparatively more affordable.
Even the advent of more comfortable cabins has served to increase emissions. Premium economy seats that weigh more and take up space that could have been occupied by extra passengers now account for a third of all bookings on transatlantic routes, Boeing said.
Demand for flights will grow fastest in emerging markets such as India, according to the company’s annual commercial market outlook, as an expanding middle class embraces a travel revolution that began in the West in the 1960s and 1970s.
Europe, however, is projected to lead the way in aircraft deliveries, requiring 22pc of the global total, with North America and China close behind.
Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president for commercial marketing, said: “Emerging markets will grow very quickly from small bases. But maturing markets that are already very large will continue to grow.”
Macroeconomic factors appear positive for the industry, with solid GDP growth, lower interest rates and inflation promoting discretionary spending.
Boeing said its 20-year outlook issued in 2004 was only a couple of percentage points out in estimating the expansion of the global fleet through last year.
The company said increased production of sustainable fuel, technological breakthroughs and operational efficiencies should still allow airlines to reach their decarbonisation goals.