Saturday, October 19, 2024

Why the EU cannot rely on Assad to solve its migration woes

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Such claims are hardly without foundation.

Despite some two dozen amnesties announced by Assad over the years, tens of thousands of prisoners of conscience remain in detention in Syria, many of whom have been held for more than a decade simply for participating in anti-government protests.

Conditions in Syrian prisons are amongst the worst in the world. Most detainees have experienced starvation, torture and overcrowding. Tens of thousands have died, often after being executed without a trial.

Amnesty International estimates that as many as 13,000 detainees were hanged at the Sednaya military prison in Damascus between 2011, when the uprising against Assad began, and 2016 alone.

Nor is the country safe or stable. Violence continues in several parts of the state.

In the past week alone, Israel attacked a weapons depot in the coastal city of Latakia in government-held territory, while Russia, which props up the Assad regime, carried out dozens of airstrikes on rebel-held areas. One Russian strike killed 10 people in Idlib – about half of which is controlled by a jihadist group.

While the crisis remains unresolved, and economic and humanitarian conditions continue to worsen, experts warn that failed Arab League efforts to re-engage Assad should offer the EU a salutary warning against trusting the Syrian president.

‘The Syrians will only ever take’

Last year, the Arab League invited Syria back into its fold for the first time since November 2011 and showered Assad with accolades after he addressed the group at a summit in the Saudi city of Jeddah.

Restoring relations, it was hoped, would prod Assad into reducing Iranian influence in Syria, persuading refugees that it was safe to return and curtailing the illicit trade in Captagon, an amphetamine that is said to have enriched the Assad regime while causing misery across the Middle East.

The Syrian president has made good on none of these promises, however, says Heiko Wimmen of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank, something that should ring alarm bells for Europeans thinking of adopting the Arab League’s approach.

“There is this experience time and time again that whenever you deal with the Syrians, the Syrians will only take but never give anything back,” he said.

“Everyone has had the same experience as the Gulf states. You just don’t get anything from the Syrians. Maybe Bashar can’t deliver or maybe he won’t. It is unclear which, but in the end what does it matter? In the end if he doesn’t deliver, he doesn’t deliver.”

The issue is one of trust

While rehabilitating an unapologetic Assad may seem an unconscionable and futile betrayal for some in the West, others, however, note that all efforts to topple him have failed, thanks to the support of Russia and Iran – and that by deliberately keeping Syria weak through sanctions is only exacerbating the problem.

Some kind of accommodation, however distasteful, is therefore necessary both on pragmatic and humanitarian grounds, they argue.

It could weaken Russian influence over time, some say, while a stronger state built on credible institutions and with full control of the country would potentially prevent the resurgence of extremist jihadist groups such as Isis, which is regrouping in the east of the country.

Vengeful and vindictive as Assad may be, the pragmatists conclude, he must surely see that the only way to rebuild his shattered country is to ensure the safe return of the 12 million Syrians – more than half the population – still too scared to go home.

Ultimately the issue comes down to trust.

Desperate to stem and reverse the tide of refugees to the EU, particularly with the Middle East in renewed turmoil, Ms Meloni and her allies are eager to give Assad the benefit of the doubt.

Others, including Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, would dearly like to share their optimism.

Turkey is home to more than 3 million Syrian refugees and Mr Erdogan has ostensibly made overtures to Assad about a deal that would see Turkish troops withdraw from the north-west.

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