It took just two weeks for Assad’s regime to collapse. One by one, key cities, starting with Aleppo, fell as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, surged down the critical M5 highway toward Damascus. Assad’s conscript army, poorly paid and deeply demoralized, chose to flee or defect rather than stand and fight, fed up with the dire economic state of the country and the rampant corruption that riddled his regime.
HTS’s surprising momentum was fuelled by a population exhausted from 24 years of Assad’s brutality, so desperate for change that they chose to back a jihadist militia once affiliated with al-Qaeda. For many, it was a last resort—a grim compromise to achieve long-overdue regime change.
Yet this moment of change could have come a decade earlier. But when the UK Parliament voted in August 2013 against punishing Assad for gassing his own people, and the U.S. also stepped back, Russia and Iran stepped in, propping up their embattled ally.
This time, Assad found himself without sponsors, without an army, and without a future. He fled the country, leaving a power vacuum and an urgent question: what happens next?
Syria’s incredible history stretches back to the cradle of civilization. Situated at the crossroads of three continents, it has witnessed the rise and fall of mighty empires—from the Assyrians to the Romans, from the Babylonians to the Ottomans. This rich but turbulent history has resulted in the complex, sectarian, multi-ethnic, and multi-tribal patchwork that defines Syria today.
The future of Syria is now precariously balanced. Rebel groups have seized the moment to rekindle their territorial ambitions, particularly in the south. In the northeast, the Syrian Democratic Forces (a predominantly Kurdish militia), are carving out their own wider sphere of influence. Despite proxy support from regional backers, no single group has the capacity—or legitimacy—to govern the entire country.
What Syria needs is a short-term technocratic government to stabilize the situation and prevent full-scale civil war, followed by a federated model that reflects the country’s diverse patchwork of sectarian and ethnic regions. Get this right, and Syria could finally move toward a more stable future.
Get it wrong, and the country risks imploding, paving the way for the increased movement of drugs, refugees, modern slaves, and weapons across the region.
The consequences of failure would be felt far beyond Syria’s borders, with another wave of refugees fleeing toward Europe, a breading ground for Islamic terrorism and an ever-turbulent Middle East spilling over into global instability. Once again, Syria calls for international help. The question is: will the world blink again?