Not for the first time in rugby union’s turbulent professional history there is a lot happening. A mooted breakaway global league is the latest curveball threatening to destabilise the sport with even the newly elected chair of World Cup suggesting rugby’s financial sustainability is “at crisis point”. No one, from the top down, can be entirely sure how the medium-term future will pan out.
Much the same, frankly, can be said about England as they prepare to face the double world champions South Africa. A morale-lifting win, by whatever means, would transform an uncertain current narrative and cast their recent string of near misses in a relatively more flattering light. A proper pummelling by a strong Springbok side, on the other hand, could result in them dropping to the equal lowest world ranking in red rose history.
For that to happen South Africa will need to win by more than 15 points and Australia would need to defeat Wales by a similar margin, an improbable but not impossible double based on those respective sides’ most recent form. Eighth position – down one from their present spot of seventh – would equal the darkest days of 2015 when England had just bombed out of their home World Cup in the pool stages.
Are Steve Borthwick’s side really that down on their luck? Most of us who watched them at close quarters in the summer felt otherwise: they looked purposeful, defended with energy and should have won at least one of their two Tests against the All Blacks in Dunedin and Auckland. This month, though, they have played mostly in fits and starts and the Wallabies, in particular, found an alarming number of defensive holes.
And this could well be the contest that, for better or worse, ends up defining the character of Borthwick’s England. The Springbok scrum do not mess around and an increasing aura and confidence is discernible across the team. They also reign supreme in precisely the kind of tight games that England have been struggling to close out.
At least the hosts and their experienced captain, Jamie George, know what is coming and exactly how deep they will have to dig for victory. “It doesn’t take a brain surgeon to work out they like to scrum for penalties then kick and maul,” confirmed George. “As a forward pack we know the scrum is coming, we know the maul is coming. [But] the message this week is that we’re at home and we want to make sure we put a mark down. We were disappointed about what we put out there last Saturday. In terms of a reaction there’s no better team to do it against.”
George, who learned his trade at Saracens under the South African World Cup-winning captain John Smit, has also been accentuating the positives of England’s defeats by the All Blacks and the Wallabies, both decided in the closing moments. The margins can be slim and England also have a very decent record when they perceive their manhood is being questioned.
But compare the two team sheets and, on paper, South Africa appear to have a slight edge in most areas, either in terms of brute physicality or collective organisation. There is also more tactical flexibility about them. Manie Libbok may not be the world’s greatest goalkicker but that may not matter if his touch and vision gives the brilliant Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse space out wide.
This is a big game, then, not just for England’s scrum but for their defensive organisers and potential game breakers. Last week Marcus Smith gave perhaps his most influential display at 10 for his country and will be a handful again if he has enough quick ball and sufficient people on his wavelength. If so, his little dinks over the top, identification of mismatches and acceleration will keep the visitors fully occupied.
To resurrect their autumn, however, Borthwick’s team will also have to do the straightforward meat and potatoes part of the job. They have only once conceded more points at home than they did last Saturday and the unwanted record of 53 was also set against Borthwick’s England by France last year.
Restarts were also part of their undoing against Australia, for whom the soaring Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii caused all sorts of strife. More dynamism from England’s bench is also required, along with more consistent line speed. If any one department falls short, the Boks will expose it.
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It can be done, as England showed on that damp night in Paris when they almost unseated South Africa in last year’s World Cup semi-final. That memory has rekindled their motivation this week and, as their erstwhile captain Courtney Lawes confirmed in his Times column, there is now a genuine bristling edge whenever these two sides meet.
There is no doubt, either, that this is South Africa’s keynote game of the month. The Boks’ spiritual leader Rassie Erasmus is still driven to remind the rugby world where the balance of earthly power currently resides.
He has been making the point, even so, that his side suffered narrow losses to Ireland and France in 2022 prior to regaining their world title within 12 months. Interestingly, too, Borthwick’s record as England’s head coach in his first 26 Tests – W13 L13 – is remarkably similar to that of Sir Clive Woodward – W13 D2 L11 – over the same span. Woodward’s side subsequently went on to win 43 of their next 49 Tests, culminating in their 2003 World Cup triumph.
The difference is that Woodward’s England had a once-in-a-generation side coming together, not least a pack equipped to lay down the law when required. England have some decent young forwards on the horizon – some of whom could break cover in their A team fixture against Australia A at the Stoop on Sunday – but it is going to take a while before they are ready for senior service.
It is just another reason why this weekend is highly significant. England’s supporters will not be keen to pay top dollar indefinitely to watch a losing team and the entire English game is craving a pre-Christmas feelgood boost. As Ellis Genge recently warned in the Guardian “something has got to give” in terms of the precarious economics of the domestic club game and the Rugby Football Union could do without another national team meltdown. Even if England again finish second – as seems probable – they need to give their fans fresh reason to keep the faith.