Monday, September 16, 2024

‘Brexit Britain’ is outperforming Europe – but Labour threatens to ruin it all

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But there are some silver linings, too.

The relatively strong performance of the UK economy and greater political stability is proving a draw for overseas investors. Inward foreign direct investment in greenfield projects (those that create new jobs) has remained strong, despite Brexit-related uncertainty.

Now, UK financial assets are benefiting from a new-found safe haven status too. This is reversing some of the longer-term underperformance of UK bonds and equities and boosting the pound, making it easier for the Bank of England to keep cutting interest rates.

Equally, there are several things that could go wrong. Abroad, there are growing concerns about the US and Chinese economy. The UK could not escape a global recession.

At home, Labour is enjoying a honeymoon period with businesses and investors, thanks in part to hopes that the commanding parliamentary majority will allow far-reaching reforms of planning laws and public services.

But these hopes have not yet been properly tested, and there is plenty else that Labour might do – notably on energy policy and employment rights – that could turn investors off.

The approach to tax is an obvious stumbling block. The new Government has already announced that it will take the toughest possible approach to the taxation of non-UK domiciled individuals (non-doms). Mixing my metaphors, this could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and drives away the golden goose.

Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, is now telling us to expect further cuts in infrastructure spending and large increases in taxes on savings and investment. This is not a good look for a Government that says it intends to prioritise growth – or wants to ensure that the UK economy continues to outperform.


Julian Jessop (@julianhjessop) is an independent economist

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