In China and much of the rest of the “developing world”, net zero targets appear to mean nothing at all beyond their usefulness in undermining the West. Economic growth is routinely prioritised over climate change goals.
Similarly in the US, which pays lip service to net zero while simultaneously celebrating its position as the world’s largest oil producer; big tax breaks for fracking go hand in hand with the hundreds of billions the Biden administration is pouring into the green energy transition.
Even holier-than-thou little Norway, which aims to be carbon neutral by 2030, seeks to extend the life of its North Sea oil and gas reserves long into the future with big ongoing incentives to invest.
In a bid to revive economic growth, Christopher Luxon’s new centre-Right government in New Zealand is meanwhile in wholesale retreat from the environmental commitments of his saintly predecessor, Jacinda Ardern.
Only in the UK does the torch of net zero still burn strong, with the newly installed Labour Government determined to double down on emission targets whatever the costs. Even Brussels demonstrates at least a modicum of common sense on these matters.
Britain isn’t “world leading” in much these days, but when it comes to climate change we aim to be well ahead of the pack, with some of the most demanding regulatory requirements on the planet.
“Over the top, lads,” shouts the energy secretary, Ed Miliband with all the righteous self-belief of a cross-carrying crusader, only to look behind and find that nobody is following. There are few first-mover advantages in this game, only the certainty of being mown down in the charge.
Since entering office little more than a month ago, the new Government has further toughened up what was already an exceptionally challenging timetable for the transition to clean energy. In so doing, it has effectively signed the North Sea oil and gas sector’s death warrant, putting tens of thousands of jobs at risk, undermining a once lucrative source of tax revenue and potentially opening up another giant hole in the balance of payments.
Make no mistake: we will continue to use oil and gas for decades to come, whether we produce it ourselves or not.
Yet tax allowances are being axed, the marginal rate of tax is about to be raised to levels where it becomes uneconomic to produce, and there’s an absolute ban on all new licences. The Government is also committed to bringing forward by five years the target both for decarbonising electricity generation and for banning the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles.
Both of the new targets are likely to considerably increase the costs of the transition to consumers, if indeed they can be met at all. The industries affected are universally sceptical. The accelerated timetable for phasing out petrol and diesel vehicles is beginning to look particularly destructive.
Even under the last government’s policies, car manufacturers were mandated to sell at least 22 per cent of their output as zero emission vehicles this year. With EV registrations currently languishing at little more than 16 per cent of the market, suppliers are facing fines of £15,000 per vehicle for failure to meet the mandate.
For what it is worth, the Department for Transport insists that it does not expect to fine any manufacturer this year, even if it is hard to figure out why not. Let’s hope ministers are finally seeing the error of their ways.
It scarcely needs saying that there is no point in manufacturing a car at all when faced with penalties of such magnitude. To meet the new Government’s targets, demand and supply would have to crater. Unless, of course, we turn over the entire market to the Chinese, whose EVs are much cheaper and generally of higher quality than their European counterparts.
This, in turn, would not just consign what’s left of Britain’s auto industry to the dustbin of history, but because today’s semi-autonomous vehicles are essentially all-seeing, data-harvesting computers on wheels, would also raise major security concerns.
Who needs satellites and spy balloons when at the drop of a hat an entirely-made-in-China Lotus Eletre can be driven by an otherwise loyal employee deep into the heart of Britain’s Atomic Weapons Establishment? The choice could hardly be starker – national security or emissions reduction. Yet that’s what it comes down to. Something, somewhere, has to give, and whichever it is will not look pretty.
As things stand, Britain’s net zero targets are little more than virtue-signalling policy on the hoof; their industrial, economic and security implications have not been properly thought through.
There are few overt climate change deniers out there any more. All of us can see that the climate is changing, and that man-made emissions are the likely cause. Yet, at less than one per cent of the problem globally, there is very little we in Britain can do that will make the slightest bit of difference.
Making ourselves martyrs to the cause won’t change a thing. A little less idealism, and rather more economic realism, would be very welcome.