The mood in the UK rail supply sector remains low, with the majority (83%) of business leaders expecting a hiatus in work and almost half (48%) expecting the industry to shrink.
The results come from Savanta, which polled 250 rail business leaders on behalf of the Railway Industry Association (RIA). The trade group counts over 360 UK rail supply companies among its membership.
The survey was carried out between September and October, before the Autumn Budget, which saw chancellor Rachel Reeves announce funds for High Speed 2 (HS2) tunnels to Euston and a commitment to a long-term rolling stock pipeline.
The 83% expectation of a hiatus in work is the same as last year. The main factors behind this belief are the time it will take to deliver Great British Railways-related reform and the uncertainty over major projects budgets.
In response to this expected hiatus in work, more than half (51%) said that they will be freezing or slowing recruitment (a 7% increase from 2023) and more than half (51%) said they will be prioritising work outside the UK (a 9% increase). Additionally, more than one in three (35%) said they will be pausing or slowing plans to expand in the UK.
While 48% of respondents to the survey said they expect the industry to contract in the next year, this is an improvement on last year’s 54%. Additionally, over a quarter (26%) said they believe it will grow in the next year.
Focusing on individual businesses, 46% of owners expect their business to grow in the next year, while 29% are expecting their business to shrink. This is the lowest score for five years, but is only slightly down from 2023.
RIA chief executive Darren Caplan said: “The conclusions of the survey reflect a second year of rail supply leaders being concerned about the outlook for the wider UK rail market and anxiety about their own business’s prospects more specifically.
“Over 80% forecast a hiatus in work in the year ahead, with a detailed timeline for rail reform or firm commitments for the delivery of major projects still awaited. This uncertainty adversely impacts recruitment, expansion plans and suppliers, who will seek refuge in other sectors and overseas markets if more confidence fails to return.
“The results from the survey confirm RIA’s longstanding calls for more certainty from government on which national, regional and local rail work – both track and train – it wants the railway industry to deliver in the months ahead.
“We call on the government to set out a clear roadmap for rail investment as soon as possible, including plans for rail enhancements and rolling stock procurement and refurbishment. Visibility of these plans would provide rail suppliers with the certainty they need, ultimately helping to deliver the rail services customers – both passengers and freight – want and the value for money taxpayers expect. We hope the 2025 survey will show an uplift in confidence, following the Budget on 30 October this year, which seemed more positive about the prospects for both railway infrastructure and rolling stock pipelines.”
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