England: Chance of Nations League promotion for Three Lions in Lee Carsley’s final games before Thomas Tuchel era

With the Premier League season just 11 games old, we’re heading into a third international break already.

There’s no major tournament next summer and no Euros or World Cup qualification place at stake, so the importance of these Nations League games is an easy target for critics of international football.

For England, there is the added context that interim boss Lee Carsley will again be in charge, with the next permanent boss Thomas Tuchel not starting officially until January.

Tuchel will not interfere in any way with Carsley’s decision-making throughout this final international break of 2024. A combination of residual legal issues with Bayern Munich (whom he left in May) and a mutual agreement between Tuchel and the FA that a fresh start in January suits both sides means his first England games in charge won’t be until March.

As such, don’t expect the German coach to be seen in the stands, either in Athens or at Wembley – he will not want to overshadow Carsley’s final two matches in charge.

After the high-pressure, all-or-nothing games of this summer’s run to the final of Euro 2024, the jeopardy for England is pretty low. Top spot in the group can still be claimed but even a promotion play-off offers a route back to the premier tier if England fail to overhaul Greece. Automatic relegation has been avoided, while a third-placed finish and relegation play-off seems unlikely.

A return to League A has value for England in the long-term, as they will be able to face better opposition in the next edition of the Nations League – although that will not be until after the 2026 World Cup and the current expiry date of Tuchel’s contract.

There is also the footnote that a group win would give England a get-out-of-jail card if World Cup qualifying goes disastrously wrong next year – the four best Nations League group winners who do not finish in the top two of their World Cup qualifying groups will earn a place in the play-offs. Tuchel, though, will have big problems on his hands if that back-up World Cup play-off spot needs to be activated.

Back-to-back wins would create a welcome, positive platform for Tuchel to build on in the new year – but there are bigger priorities ahead for the incoming boss.

What’s at stake?

England have the chance to win Group B2 and earn automatic promotion back to the top tier of the Nations League but to do that they will almost certainly need to win both of their remaining games, away to current leaders Greece (who have a three-point advantage) on Thursday and at Wembley against Republic of Ireland on Sunday.

A second-placed finish would put England into a promotion play-off, where they would face one of the third-placed League A sides.

If England were to lose both of their games they could slip to third (although Republic of Ireland would need to win both of their games and force a significant goal difference swing). That would put England into a relegation play-off against a side which had finished second in a League C group.

England cannot finish bottom of the group and be automatically relegated to League C.

Who could England face in a promotion play-off?

As it stands, England would be drawn to face Poland, Belgium, Hungary or Serbia in a promotion play-off, as they are currently the sides sitting in third in League A groups.

However, big-name sides including Switzerland or Denmark, Netherlands, France or Croatia could also finish third in League A groups.

That draw will be made on November 22, with the League A sides playing the second leg of play-offs at home. The play-offs will take place on March 20 and 23.

Which players have a point to prove this week?

With these being Carsley’s final games and Tuchel not officially involved, there will be some observers questioning the impact performances against Greece and Republic of Ireland will have on players’ international futures. But nonetheless there will be players with a point to prove.

There are also plenty of opportunities for new faces after eight players withdrew from the squad on Monday.

Carsley will be without a string of senior players after Aaron Ramsdale, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Levi Colwill, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Jack Grealish and Phil Foden all dropped out.

It has opened the door for Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers to receive his first senior call-up, while James Trafford, Tino Livramento, Jarrad Branthwaite and Jarrod Bowen have also been added to the squad, which leaves Carsley with a 23-player group.

At centre-back, with Harry Maguire and John Stones out injured, new face Taylor Harwood-Bellis will be keen to show he can be a regular option at centre-back, while there should be further opportunities for Marc Guehi and Ezri Konsa.

Similarly, this looks to be debutant Lewis Hall’s big chance to nail down the left-back spot, with Luke Shaw still injury-hit and Ben Chilwell out of the frame at Chelsea.

Curtis Jones will also be dreaming of a statement performance if he is handed his first senior cap. Can the Liverpudlian show he has the skills to suit Tuchel’s style in the middle of the park?

What happens this week will not be the be-all and end-all for players’ international prospects under Tuchel. There is a lot of Premier League football to be played before he names his first England squad in March. But no England cap can be wasted.

Reminder: Who got an initial call-up?

Defensive duo Harwood-Bellis and Hall have received their first England call-ups, while Jones has returned to Lee Carsley’s squad.

Hall has featured in all of Newcastle’s Premier League fixtures this season and will now look to resolve England’s issues at left-back, after the likes of Kieran Trippier, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Rico Lewis were all trialled in the role.

Harwood-Bellis was given his England U21 debut by Carsley and will now hope to make his senior bow.

Manchester City’s Kyle Walker is a surprise inclusion given he has only just returned from being sidelined for nearly two weeks in October.

Dominic Solanke retains his spot in the squad following his recent double for Tottenham against Aston Villa.

England’s updated November Nations League squad

Goalkeepers: Jordan Pickford (Everton), Dean Henderson (Crystal Palace), James Trafford (Burnley).

Defenders: Marc Guehi (Crystal Palace), Ezri Konsa (Aston Villa), Lewis Hall (Newcastle), Rico Lewis (Man City), Kyle Walker (Man City), Taylor Harwood-Bellis (Southampton), Jarrad Branthwaite (Everton), Tino Livramento (Newcastle).

Midfielders: Conor Gallagher (Atletico Madrid), Curtis Jones (Liverpool), Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest), Angel Gomes (Lille), Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid).

Forwards: Noni Madueke (Chelsea), Anthony Gordon (Newcastle), Harry Kane (Bayern Munich), Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa), Dominic Solanke (Tottenham), Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa), Jarrod Bowen (West Ham).

England’s upcoming fixtures

England will travel to Athens to face Greece on November 14 at 7.45pm. The Three Lions will then host Republic of Ireland at Wembley on November 17 at 5pm.