Europe will “struggle significantly” to provide Ukraine with the help it needs to keep fighting Russia if the US turns off the taps of military aid for the war-torn nation, according to an expert.
Geopolitical analyst Matt Shoemaker believes Europe is facing an “uncomfortable challenge”. He told Express.co.uk: “In a perfect world, European countries would have organised in the immediate aftermath of Russia‘s invasion to streamline their resource-sharing capabilities.
“30 months later, most European countries now are running low on sharable supplies like artillery and don’t have the structures in place to organise an effective industrial replacement for American material support. France has attempted to take the lead in European defense but doesn’t seem to have garnered much traction.
“If President Trump removes American support to Ukraine, Europe will struggle significantly to provide it with enough funding and weapons to keep Russian forces at bay.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced during her 2023 State of the Union speech the bloc’s European Defence Industrial Strategy which, among other goals, aims at teaming up with international partners and improving the responsiveness of the European defence industry.
With war on its doorstep, the bloc has “funded projects in 15 EU member states aimed at removing bottlenecks in supply chains” within defence industry production, according to an analysis published by the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies. However, “apart from artillery shells, the bulk orders intended to scale-up pan-European production have not been placed”, author of the review Leo Litra, senior fellow at New Europe Center, said.
He also wrote: “The European Defence Industrial Strategy constitutes an excellent first step in mobilising defence production and addressing key challenges. To produce more, more cheaply and faster, Europe must commission as a collective, while to secure uninterrupted supplies it must place orders in the US for equipment that Europe does not produce before the US presidential election.
“At the same time, the amount of funding currently allocated to implement the Defence Industrial Strategy is insufficient to generate the desired outcomes.”
Concerns over the readiness of the European continent to step up its game to help Ukraine alone have grown stronger as the US presidential election approaches.
While the Biden administration has stood by Ukraine‘s side, Donald Trump has indicated multiple times he would cut military aid for the country should he return to the White House next year.
In May last year, he claimed he could end the war in a matter of hours – albeit he didn’t say whether Ukraine would need to relinquish some of its internationally recognised territories illegally invaded by Russia.
By choosing JD Vance as his running mate, Mr Trump sent another clear signal with regards to how he would deal with the conflict. Mr Vance has been a fervent critic of US military aid for Ukraine, saying in April there was “frankly no good reason that aid from the U.S. should be needed” given Europe is “made up of many great nations with productive economies”.