Introduction: European Central Bank firmly on track for June rate cut
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
European consumers and businesses can look forward to lower borrowing costs, with the European Central Bank looking firmly on track to cut interest rates next week.
With inflation having fallen close to the ECB’s 2% target, several policymakers are hinting that the bank will be able to lower rates at its meeting next week.
Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist, declared in a speech in Dublin:
At our June meeting, if our updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase our confidence that inflation is converging to our target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction.
After the speech, Lane told reporters that “The discussion about a rate cut next week is not a declaration of victory,” according to the Financial Times.
French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau was even more categorical, declaring a June rate cut “a done deal” unless there is a shock.
Villeroy de Galhau, who like Lane is a member of the ECB’s governing council, told Germany’s Boersen Zeitung newspaper:
“Barring a surprise, the first rate cut in June is a done deal, but afterwards we have several degrees of freedom,”
Villeroy de Galhau argued that the ECB should keep its options open about possible future cuts, adding:
“I don’t say that we should commit already on July, but let us keep our freedom on the timing and pace.”
A cut in June would make the ECB one of the first major central banks to lower rates in the current cycle, after the Swiss National Bank which surprised the markets with a rate cut in March.
Currently, the ECB’s deposit facility – paid to banks who make overnight deposits with the Eurosystem – is a record high of 4%.
Its main refinancing operations, the rate banks pay when they borrow money from the ECB for one week, is 4.5%.
Annual inflation in the euro area was just 2.4% in April 2024, a near three-year low, down from 7% a year before.
In the UK, inflation was even lower, at 2.3% in the year to April. But with services inflation looking sticky, the Bank of England now isn’t expected to start cutting rates until November.
The US Federal Reserve may also wait until November, market pricing indicates, with US inflation running over 3%.
The agenda
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7am BST: German wholesale price inflaion
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11am BST: CBI distributive trades survey for May
-
2pm BST: US house price index for March
Key events
UK shop price growth back to normal, say retailers
UK retailers are declaring that shop price inflation has fallen back to “normal levels”, after the pace of price rises eased again this month.
Prices in British shops rose at the slowest pace in two and a half years in May, according to the British Retail Consortium
It reports that annual shop price inflation slowed to 0.6% in May from 0.8% in April, the smallest increase since November 2021.
Food inflation slowed for a 13th month in a row to 3.2% from 3.4%, its lowest since February 2022, while prices of non-food goods fell by 0.8% in annual terms.
Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said:
“Shop price inflation has returned to normal levels, at just 0.6%. This was helped by slowing food inflation, with fresh food inflation falling to its lowest level since November 2021.
Meanwhile, ambient food inflation remained stickier, especially for sugary products which continued to feel the effects of high global sugar prices. In non-food, retailers cut furniture prices in an attempt to revive subdued consumer demand for big-ticket items, and football fans have been able to grab some bargains on TVs and other audio-visual equipment ahead of this summer’s Euros.”
This could cheer Rishi Sunak, who called the general election just hours after the official headline rate of UK inflation fell – although not by as much as expected – last week.
But, although the speed of price rises has fallen, this still leaves the price level sharply higher than two or three years ago.
Introduction: European Central Bank firmly on track for June rate cut
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
European consumers and businesses can look forward to lower borrowing costs, with the European Central Bank looking firmly on track to cut interest rates next week.
With inflation having fallen close to the ECB’s 2% target, several policymakers are hinting that the bank will be able to lower rates at its meeting next week.
Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist, declared in a speech in Dublin:
At our June meeting, if our updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase our confidence that inflation is converging to our target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction.
After the speech, Lane told reporters that “The discussion about a rate cut next week is not a declaration of victory,” according to the Financial Times.
French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau was even more categorical, declaring a June rate cut “a done deal” unless there is a shock.
Villeroy de Galhau, who like Lane is a member of the ECB’s governing council, told Germany’s Boersen Zeitung newspaper:
“Barring a surprise, the first rate cut in June is a done deal, but afterwards we have several degrees of freedom,”
Villeroy de Galhau argued that the ECB should keep its options open about possible future cuts, adding:
“I don’t say that we should commit already on July, but let us keep our freedom on the timing and pace.”
A cut in June would make the ECB one of the first major central banks to lower rates in the current cycle, after the Swiss National Bank which surprised the markets with a rate cut in March.
Currently, the ECB’s deposit facility – paid to banks who make overnight deposits with the Eurosystem – is a record high of 4%.
Its main refinancing operations, the rate banks pay when they borrow money from the ECB for one week, is 4.5%.
Annual inflation in the euro area was just 2.4% in April 2024, a near three-year low, down from 7% a year before.
In the UK, inflation was even lower, at 2.3% in the year to April. But with services inflation looking sticky, the Bank of England now isn’t expected to start cutting rates until November.
The US Federal Reserve may also wait until November, market pricing indicates, with US inflation running over 3%.
The agenda
-
7am BST: German wholesale price inflaion
-
11am BST: CBI distributive trades survey for May
-
2pm BST: US house price index for March