How do you beat Spain? It is not an easy question to answer on recent evidence. Gareth Southgate will be aware that even the best-laid plans could prove redundant if Lamine Yamal conjures up another moment of genius like his goal against France.
Despite low pre-tournament expectations, Luis de la Fuente’s side have been the outstanding team at Euro 2024. Croatia, Italy, Germany and France have all been beaten on their way to the final. “Tactically, we will have to be perfect,” says Southgate.
The make-up of this Spain team is very different to that of the last one to make the final of a European Championship. Their triumphant 2012 side was packed with A-listers. This time, their only established star is Rodri. Their main man, Yamal, is in fact a schoolboy.
What they have, though, in the absence of star names, is a level of cohesion akin to that of a club side, and an ability to hurt their foes in different ways. The challenge for England, as they target a first trophy since 1966, is to find a way to overcome them.
Saka can find space on Spain’s left
On the face of it, Spain’s defensive record at the tournament offers little encouragement for England. They did not concede a single goal during the group stage. Randal Kolo Muani’s opener for France was only the third they have conceded in 570 minutes overall.
But the underlying data shows they have given up chances worth 6.2 expected goals against, which is a higher total than England’s 5.7. They are perhaps fortunate, then, not to have conceded more goals.
It should be noted that a good chunk of that figure came in the group-stage win over Croatia. But Germany were wasteful too, scoring only once from 2.2 expected goals, with Kai Havertz, Niclas Fullkrug and Thomas Muller all spurning good chances.
England’s challenge is to be more clinical and Southgate should note that a high proportion of the opportunities Spain have given up at the tournament have come from their left flank.
Spain have conceded a high proportion of chances from their left side
Marc Cucurella has earned plaudits for his diligent defensive displays in Germany but he is also asked to join attacks, which can leave space behind him. With left winger Nico Williams pushed high up the pitch, he can at times find himself isolated at the other end too.
That could be good news for England given Bukayo Saka’s presence on that side. The Arsenal forward scored the outstanding equaliser against Switzerland and impressed again against Netherlands. His speed and one-on-one prowess make him an invaluable outlet.
Bukayo Saka ranks highly in key attacking metrics among England players
His total of 18 shot-creating actions puts him top among England players at the tournament. Saka also ranks top among his team-mates for successful crosses and passes into the opposition box. Only Jude Bellingham has made more successful dribbles.
Saka is not the only player who carries a threat on the right side either. Kyle Walker has got forward effectively at times and Cole Palmer has contributed positively, too, providing the assist for Ollie Watkins’ winner against Netherlands from an inside-right position.
England have carried more attacking threat on their right side
In fact, with the exception of Harry Kane’s extra-time strike against Slovakia in the last 16, every one of England’s open-play goals at the tournament has come from the right side. It is likely to be their best route to goal once again against Spain.
Watkins to exploit Spain’s high line?
Spain’s high pressing is one of their most effective weapons. According to Opta, they have forced more high turnovers than any other side at Euro 2024. It has allowed them to pin their opponents back. On many occasions, it has also led to scoring chances.
Riccardo Calafiori’s own goal in the group-stage win over Italy resulted from Dani Carvajal pouncing on a defender’s loose touch just inside the opposition box. Dani Olmo’s strike against Georgia came after Mikel Merino won the ball in a similarly dangerous area.
England must be prepared for this aggressive approach. Their defensive players will need to demonstrate composure under the pressure when attempting to play out from the back. Those further up the pitch will need to ensure they offer passing options.
But if England can find a way through Spain’s press, the rewards could be considerable in terms of space to attack.
“We knew that if we got opportunities to break in the full-back areas we might have some joy,” David Webb, assistant to Georgia head coach Willy Sagnol during the tournament, explained on Sky Sports News when asked about preparing to face Spain in the last 16. “Another area was in and around the midfield. When the two No 8s go forward, there’s some space there.”
Georgia were beaten 4-1 in the end but their game plan bore fruit for their opening goal, when Otar Kakabadze found room on Spain’s left-back position to cross for Robin Le Normand’s own goal.
France were also to able to find space in the first half of their semi-final on Tuesday, when Spain’s stand-in right-back Jesus Navas, in particular, was repeatedly exposed against Kylian Mbappe.
Spain’s pressing has helped them dominate opponents in Germany. The average positions graphic above highlights how high up the pitch they have played. But committing so many bodies forward and using a high defensive line – Spain have the second-highest start distance at the tournament – is inherently risky.
Watkins is probably England’s best bet for exploiting it.
The Aston Villa man scored England’s winner against Netherlands with a trademark run in behind the Dutch defence and, while he is likely to return to the bench against Spain, he could be key as a substitute – especially when the game becomes stretched.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Ollie Watkins scored two very similar goals to his England winner against Netherlands for Aston Villa last season
Stop Yamal, stop Spain?
Yamal’s importance to this Spain side can hardly be overstated. Already the youngest player and scorer in European Championship history, the winger, who only turns 17 on Saturday, is now aiming to make an even bigger mark in the record books by lifting the trophy.
His stunning goal against France was his first at the tournament but he has had more shots than any of his team-mates and he is their top creator too, with three assists.
In fact, his total of 16 chances created, in addition to being the highest at Euro 2024, is the most by a Spaniard at a major tournament since Xavi Hernandez at Euro 2012.
Interestingly, Spain have directed a far higher proportion of attacks down the opposite flank in Germany, where Williams carries a considerable threat of his own.
But one of the reasons for this lop-sidedness is to create space for Yamal. As France found out in the semi-final, he only needs a few yards to make the difference. His xG chain, which measures the value of open-play shots or goal-ending sequences a player is involved in, is the highest of any Spain or England player at the tournament.
Oscar Lopez, his former coach in Barcelona’s academy, described in detail his “logic-defying” brilliance when cutting in from the right in conversation with Sky Sports last week and his stunning strike in the subsequent game against France was a perfect example.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Former Barcelona academy coaches Oscar Lopez and Albert Capellas tell Sky Sports why Lamine Yamal is so special
This Spanish team is constructed to ensure he gets opportunities to receive the ball in space.
Even when attacking down the left, the aim is often to transfer the ball to the right. This is shown by the fact that left-winger Williams is third among Spain players for passes to Yamal per 90 minutes. The winger-to-winger pass is a feature of their game.
England will need to cut off the supply line, not just from Williams but also from Carvajal, who is likely to return at right-back having missed their last game through suspension, and from Rodri, who also provides frequent passes to Yamal from central midfield.
Sticking with a back three would give England a numerical advantage up against Yamal. But while the clamour for Luke Shaw to start ahead of Kieran Trippier is mainly based around his offensive qualities, Yamal’s threat is such that supporting Marc Guehi will probably be the most important aspect of the left wing-back role in this game.
“We knew if he isolated our wing-back, it would be difficult one-on-one because he is equally effective going on the inside or the outside,” added Georgia assistant Webb. “The game plan was just to try to give him hardly any space at all and surround him. But with that sort of talent and ability, it was very hard.”
France, like Georgia in the last 16, found that out first-hand in the semi-finals. England will need to keep Yamal quieter if they are to succeed where Spain’s previous opponents failed.