Friday, October 18, 2024

How the drop in inflation ‘caught the Bank of England off guard’

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This was because, even though mortgage rates have been falling, they are still far higher than before the Bank of England began raising interest rates at the end of 2021. 

The average rate on a five-year fixed-rate deal on Wednesday was 5.06pc, still roughly double the average 2.64pc rate in December 2021, according to Moneyfacts. This means mortgage holders are seeing their monthly payments rise when their fixed rate deals expire and they move on to higher rates.

Economists also warned inflation was likely to rise again in the coming months, as October’s 10pc energy price cap rise flows through.

Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec, cautioned that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could easily spark an even bigger rise in energy prices.

“The conflict in the Middle East poses a threat to not just oil production, but also the shipping of oil,” she said.

“The Strait of Hormuz is a critical oil transit route which is situated between Iran and Oman and could be vulnerable to blockades in the event of an escalation in the conflict.”

Netwealth’s Mr Lyons warned that although more rate cuts were necessary, they must not return to the record lows of 0.1pc seen during the pandemic.

Mr Lyons said: “Even though interest rates need to fall further. I think it’s important that they settle at a much higher level than we were used to before.

“Because zero or close to zero interest rates and quantitative easing led to asset price inflation and fed the recent surge in inflation. We want to avoid repetition of that.”

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