So, which way should the UK jump? The pragmatic answer is that it shouldn’t; there are currently too many unknown variables.
Trump has, for example, said he plans to impose levies of 60pc on Chinese products sold to businesses and 20pc tariffs on all other imports, which could blow a £20bn hole in the UK economy, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research. But the main challenge will be figuring out whether it’s actually going to happen.
You just need to take one look at the performance of the US stock market since the election to realise that investors are treating Trump’s policy proclamations like a smorgasbord, picking up on the ones they like and basically ignoring those that don’t fit their narrative.
Tax cuts? Can’t wait: buy. Deregulation? Great: buy. Tariffs? Won’t happen: buy.
Maybe there is something to this Panglossian view. Maybe Trump knows full well that tariffs will be inflationary and hit US consumers harder than anyone else. Maybe he’s using the threat of a big stick to wrangle a few concessions out of Beijing and Brussels that he will then bank before dialling back on trade sabre-rattling.
But, if so, the UK would be making a massive mistake in aligning more closely with Washington in order to avoid tariffs that may never actually be imposed. And if you thought British farmers were angry with the Government over Rachel Reeves’s inheritance tax plans, just wait until the possibility of a free trade deal with the US moves into view and everyone starts screaming at each other about chlorinated chicken.
Yet the UK can’t passively sit on its hands. Here are three practical priorities.
First, take a leaf out of India’s geopolitical playbook and navigate an increasingly multipolar world through strategic non-alignment. Critics say that India is constantly trying to play both sides off against each other but really it’s just the most pragmatic approach to an increasingly complex world.
This wouldn’t be precisely replicable for a Nato member but it’s worth noting that New Delhi is able both to plough its own furrow and strike important security pacts such as the “Quad” with the US, Japan and Australia.
There will be those who argue India can only get away with non-alignment because other countries want access to its vast market. And it’s true that the Indian economy recently overtook the UK’s. But on the flipside, the Indian economy only recently overtook the UK’s; this is still an attractive market – German carmakers call the UK “treasury island”.
Second, lean into services-exporting superpower status. Britain still has the City and it’s still the epicentre of the world’s lingua franca. Services are harder to incorporate into trade deals because the regulations that govern them are more complex than tariffs. But for precisely this reason they are less likely to get caught up in hostilities if a global trade war kicks off.