“The Iranian leadership is prepared to accept a humiliating retreat in the face of Israeli strikes in the short term to safeguard the regime in the long run, and this explains Tehran’s lack of retaliation so far,” said Alex Vatanka, the director of the Iran Program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
Iran could encourage more asymmetric attacks, targeting Jewish tourists, synagogues or Israeli diplomatic missions as it has done in the past. Netanyahu issued a warning Monday to Iran likely over that risk, saying: “There is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach.”
Tehran also could weaponize its nuclear program. It already enriches uranium to near-weapons-grade levels after the collapse of its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Hard-line voices within Iran’s theocracy, like its daily Kahyan newspaper, already are calling for a response “harsher” than its April attack, which caused very little damage.
That, however, runs directly counter to the plans of Iran’s new reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian, who campaigned on a promise to get crushing economic sanctions lifted against Iran. That’s grown in importance as energy prices continue to fall and Iran likely sells its oil at a discount due to being locked out of many nations.
If nuclear deal “commitments are implemented fully and in good faith, dialogue on other issues can follow,” Pezeshkian told the United Nations General Assembly last week.
Ending the sanctions requires a deal with the West on the nuclear program, something that will become nearly impossible if Iran enters an all-out war with Israel. Relieving that economic pressure remains crucial for Iran’s domestic stability as well, as authorities remember the months of protests that followed the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini.
“For the time being it appears the president and the supreme leader, the latter who is abundantly cautious, want to keep the line open to dialogue and negotiations,” Vakil said.
And to keep that line open, Iran needs someone else to take the lead against Israel.