A former IDF soldier turned academic has warned that Israel could get stuck in Lebanon if it decides to undertake a full-scale invasion of its northern neighbour.
Dr Ahron Bregman, who now works as a Senior Teaching Fellow at King’s College London but served in the Israeli army during the 1982 Lebanon War, spoke to the Express about the ramifications of the IDF’s latest movements.
He said that whilst the raids that were seen at the end of September were not an invasion there was a possibility of any invasion taking much longer than predicted.
Dr Bregman said: “This is not yet the Israeli invasion of Lebanon. This is just “testing the water”. To see, tactically, what’s on the other side. To collect information. Also, to put pressure on the other side.
“The tricky thing for Israel will be not to get stuck in Lebanon, as happened to them following the 1st Lebanon War. I was there in the first one. It was supposed to be a 72-hour operation but Israel got stuck in Lebanon for 18 years, facing effective Hezbollah guerrilla war.”
Dr Bregman also touched on the possibility that the UK or USA might become involved if the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate.
There are concerns that if Iran becomes involved to support Hezbollah the USA and UK may be drawn into the region once again.
On this Dr Bregman warned: “Biden dispatched the USS Truman to the region. It is a warning to Iran: Keep out. If Iran interferes, we will see US forces helping Israel to intercept incoming missiles and drones. Other Western nations, including the UK, might join in blocking Iran.”
Earlier this week, the IDF confirmed they had entered southern Lebanon, writing on X they outlined their plan and intentions for their latest raid into their northern neighbour.
They said that the IDF had begun “limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon” as part of Operation Northern Arrows.
They added: “These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel.
“The IDF is continuing to operate to achieve the goals of the war and is doing everything necessary to defend the citizens of Israel and return the citizens of northern Israel to their homes.”
Despite Israel’s military capability, this is no guarantee of an easy victory for the country that recently eliminated the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, in a strike on Lebanon’s capital, Beirut.
Dr Bregman said: “If Israel moves in it might get stuck there for years, enduring Hezbollah guerrilla attacks. It is relatively easy to move in, but it’s incredibly difficult to withdraw, or pull back, especially after losing troops in the fight to get in. I was a young IDF officer in the First Lebanon War and I can tell you, from experience, that there are no easy victories in Lebanon.”
Furthermore, if Israel continues its incursions into Lebanon there is a risk it could find itself under threat from the east as well as the north and west with Dr Bregman warning that the Houthis in Yemen still pose a threat.
What’s more, he added that they could also face threats from the West Bank, a region that has not received the same focus as Israel‘s operation in Gaza: “The Houthis in Yemen, who might fire missiles at Israel, and Shia groups in Iraq and Syria opening fire.
“Hamas could try firing what remains of its arsenal. The front which is hardly mentioned is the West Bank, where the Palestinians might open a front too. So, we are talking about a big regional war.”