Gareth Southgate has to rest Jude Bellingham for their Euros last 16 game.
There. I said it. And I know it’s seismic.
He is the UEFA Young Player of the Season; he won the Kopa trophy which recognises the best U21s player in world football; he bettered Cristiano Ronaldo for goals and assists in the early part of his Bernabeu career; he is the only reigning Champions League winner in this England squad, and helped Real Madrid to a La Liga title and the Spanish Cup to boot; he is England’s best player.
Why on earth, then, would Southgate consider dropping him, just as his team enters the stage of the competition where one defeat, and England are on the plane home?
I never said dropped. I said rested. And there is a key difference.
It would be a brave and calculated gamble for an England manager who is surely having one last tilt at international silverware. England came to Germany to win the European Championship. The manager and players couldn’t have been clearer when asked repeatedly about their ambitions. And I don’t think they can do that without Bellingham firing on all cylinders. And right now, he is more like a stuttering stock car than a finely-tuned Formula One race machine.
Bellingham celebrates his 21st birthday on Saturday – the day before England’s last 16 showdown. If he does play in that game, it will be his 105th match in two seasons. That is an incredible amount of football for any player. For a very young, all-energy player like Bellingham – one who, in his free role, is just as likely to win the ball back in the full back position as he is to be the highest runner, breaking in behind an opposition defence – it is crippling.
It is no surprise that, after Southgate gave him some extra time off coming into the start of the tournament, he was absolutely outstanding against Serbia in the opening game. He had a full 15 days between the Champions League final and England’s Euros opener. And he shone with a player-of-the-match performance. Even then, he tired a little in the second half. And – apart from fleeting moments of brilliance – he has been largely anonymous ever since. For two and a half matches.
Let us work backwards with his statistics – they are about as un-Bellingham-like as you can get, and getting worse.
GAME THREE: England 0-0 Slovenia
Jude Bellingham’s stats vs Slovenia
In Cologne against Slovenia, he attempted six dribbles – completing one of them. He created zero chances. He had nine duels – won two of them. He won possession back just twice, in 90 minutes. He lost possession 16 times – more than any other England player. He had no shots.
GAME TWO: England 1-1 Denmark
In England’s second group game against Denmark, the decline was already set. Bellingham created one chance. He attempted seven dribbles – completing four of them. He had 16 duels – won six of them. He won possession back three times. He lost possession 10 times. He had no shots.
GAME ONE: England 1-0 Serbia
Jude Bellingham was brilliant in England’s opener against Serbia
In England’s opener (the only game they have won in Germany so far), Bellingham was England’s match-winner. He had 93 touches – more than any other England player, with a 96 per cent passing completion rate. He attempted five dribbles – completing two. He had 16 duels – won 10. He won possession back three times. He lost possession 10 times. He scored England’s only goal.
Those statistics couldn’t be clearer in chronicling Bellingham’s decline. His level of performance in almost all parameters is going backwards, and England need him to be at his best for the business end of this tournament.
Jude Bellingham was involved all over the pitch against Serbia, had few touches in the final third against Denmark, and was far less involved down the central third against Slovenia
Just imagine the mental exhaustion he is experiencing too. He is already one of – if not the – main men at Real Madrid. When you see him on the pitch, in the flesh, you are struck by just how much he organises and dictates to the rest of his team-mates, constantly. For club and country, he remonstrates with anyone who falls short of his standards, any player who is a few yards out of position. He is an organiser, a leader.
England’s Jude Bellingham shows his frustration and fatigue at full-time vs Slovenia
For this tournament, he has been included in England’s senior leadership team for the first time. At just 20 years old, he sits alongside Harry Kane, Declan Rice and Kieran Trippier in a special committee – three players with a total of 199 senior England caps between them. Its job is to represent the thoughts of the wider squad, and discuss with Southgate (and other senior FA officials, if needs be) everything from tactical changes, to squad policies on political issues.
My sources have told me that he regularly counsels some of the newest members of the England squad, too, if they have any queries or concerns. The 20-year-old Bellingham is a mentor to newbies such as 19-year-old Kobbie Mainoo, 23-year-old Anthony Gordon, 25-year-old Ebere Eze, should they want any advice.
On the pitch, what has been noticeable in these matches so far in Germany is just how many times he has thrown his hands in the air in desperation while play continues elsewhere. Yes, some of that has been a show of frustration at England’s inability to dominate the ball and create chances. But you also sense it is a desperation with his own performance levels.
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Rob Dorsett delivers his verdict on England’s goalless draw against Slovenia, saying that Southgate’s side showed signs of ‘desperation’ in their final Group C game.
Bellingham is his own worst critic, and while his self-confidence has been admirable throughout his career, you sense he knows right now he simply can’t replicate physically what he has been doing spectacularly for so long.
Reports in Spain speculate he is due to have a shoulder operation before the start of the next La Liga season. That has not been verified, but – if true – it may offer further explanation about Bellingham’s physical condition.
So, my argument is: sacrifice him now, in the hope that England are still in the tournament in the latter stages, when a rested Bellingham can come back into the side and remind everyone why he is one of the best players in world football.
What is the alternative? Keep flogging England’s exhausted figurehead, and go out of the Euros with a whimper, in the early stages of the knockout rounds.
Do I think Southgate will even consider it? No, I don’t. But I fear he may live to regret it.