Documentary filmmaker Michael Moore, who correctly predicted the result of the 2016 election when few others did, believes Donald Trump’s chances of a comeback win in 2024 are “toast.”
“The vast majority of the country, the normal people, have seen enough and want the clown car to disappear into the MAGA vortex somewhere between reality and Orlando,” Moore argued in a Substack essay on Friday. “The swift and explosive momentum for Kamala Harris is unlike anything that’s been seen in decades.”
Moore, a liberal director known for films like Fahrenheit 9/11 and Fahrenheit 11/9, a 2018 documentary about Trump’s victory, predicted Harris would carry the Electoral College 270 to 268.
The projection has Harris picking up most of the traditional battleground states in this election, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
The filmmaker said this analysis was based on “an aggregate of top polls” as well as “the basic conclusions I’ve come to by simply being around my fellow Americans who are shopping at Costco, having fun making TikToks and eating once a week at Chili’s.”
However, Moore also warned that a Trump defeat is anything but assured.
“We do know that Trump has a stellar streak of pulling off the impossible — and those who have written him off have more than once lived to see the day where they must eat humble pie,” Moore continued. “It is never wise to do a victory dance on the two-yard line when Trump is your opponent.”
According to The Independent’s poll tracker, Harris has a projected lead of roughly three percent over Trump, though many election forecasters refrain from making direct Electoral College predictions given the variety of toss-up states in play.
Though Harris leads of is tied with Trump in all the major battleground states, Trump is still polling higher on some key issues this cycle, including the economy and immigration.
Moore, for his part, argues the Harris campaign can lock in its projected advantage by encouraging the millions of Americans who sat out the last presidential election to vote.
“The nonvoters are the second largest political “party” in the U.S.!” the director wrote on his blog. “All we need is just a few thousand of them to show up — just this once — to make a difference.”