Thursday, November 14, 2024

Michel Barnier survives left-wing rebellion – but could still be axed

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Michel Barnier has survived a no-confidence vote just two weeks after coming into office – but his pyrrhic victory is likely to leave him embattled and dependent on the far-right National Rally to maintain power.
Just two weeks after taking office, Mr Barnier, France’s new conservative prime minister, last night faced down the first serious challenge from left-wing lawmakers determined to topple him.

The vote, seen as a crucial test of his government’s stability, highlighted the precarious position of his Cabinet, which must rely on the far-right’s support to stay in power amid worsening economic challenges, including the impact of global inflation.

The National Rally abstained from voting on the motion, with leader Marine Le Pen stating that she wanted to “give a chance” to the new government for the time being. However, Mr Barnier’s dependence on her support is likely to be a headache for him.

The no-confidence motion was spearheaded by the New Popular Front, a left-wing coalition consisting of France Unbowed, the Socialists, Greens, and Communists, but it fell short of the 289 votes required, garnering only 197.

And Barnier’s worries are far from over. In fact, his right-wing government could be toppled if a no-confidence motion were to be filed in Assemblée Nationale – the lower house in the French legislature.

Despite left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire winning the moast seats in the polls, it was far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) who won the tiles of the single largest party.

As a result, they believe that Macron should have appointed a left wing PM. A motion defended by Parti Socialist (PS) leader Olivier Faure states: “The existence of this government, in its composition and its orientation, is a negation of the result of the legislative elections.”

After the June-July parliamentary elections, the National Assembly remains divided among three major blocs: the New Popular Front, French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist allies, and the far-right National Rally, with no single group holding a majority. Mr Barnier’s government, composed mainly of Republicans and centrists, has just over 210 lawmakers, forcing it to tread carefully.

The far-right National Rally group, which counts 125 lawmakers, abstained from voting the no-confidence motion. Far-right leader Marine Le Pen, herself a lawmaker, said she decided to “give a chance” to the government for now.

Former chief EU Brexit negotiator Mr Barnier’s Cabinet is mostly composed of members of his Republicans party and centrists from Mr Macron’s alliance who altogether count just over 210 deputies equivalent to MPs in the UK.

Left-wingers denounced the choice of Barnier as PM as they were not given a chance to form a minority government, despite securing the most seats at the National Assembly.

Their motion claimed the new government “is a denial of the result of the most recent legislative elections.”

Olivier Faure, head of the Socialist Party, denounced a “democratic hijacking,” adding that “on July 7, it was the New Popular Front that came out on top.”

Barnier strongly rejected accusations that his government is “illegitimate”, pointing out: “I don’t need the government to be reminded it’s a minority one.

“Nobody has an absolute majority.”

The new government is soon to face its biggest challenge because Mr Barnier made a priority of remedying France’s indebted public finances.

He continued: “The reality we have to tell the French is that we are spending too much… This cannot go on.

“We must fix the state budget, reduce our public spending, and we will indeed be asking for an exceptional tax from companies and the wealthiest French people… It’s always better to seek to be responsible rather than popular.”

France is under pressure from the European Union’s executive body to reduce its colossal debt.

The country was placed earlier this year by the EU’s executive arm under a formal procedure for running up excessive debt, the first step in a long process before any member state can be hemmed in and moved to take corrective action.

In his inaugural speech to parliament last week, Mr Barnier vowed to to reduce France’s deficit from an estimated six percent of Gross Domestic Product now to five percent next year through a 60 billion ($66 billion) budget squeeze, with the aim to reach three percent by 2029.

To do so, he promised to cut state expenses, spend money more “efficiently” and fight tax evasion and other frauds.

The government is to formally present its 2025 budget bill on Thursday, ahead of an expected heated debated at parliament, as labor unions and left-wing opposition parties prepare to push back against some austerity measures.

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