Middle East tensions: Hezbollah claims it has fired 200 rockets into Israel in one of largest barrages yet

Analysis: Is an Israeli invasion of Lebanon inevitable?

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) was anticipating a heavy response from Hezbollah after they killed a senior commander in southern Lebanon yesterday.

However, this is the second incident of its kind in three weeks and each time it happens, tensions ratchet up and the possibility of all-out war gets closer.

If the damage to Israel is minimal – few or no casualties, limited impact on infrastructure – then the situation should remain contained for now.

But more than 200 rockets and drones have the potential for mistake and there are voices in Israel increasingly urging the government to launch an invasion of Lebanon sooner rather than later.

All sources I speak to in the region continue to insist that Hezbollah, Iran and Syria do not want a war with Israel and Hezbollah’s attacks will stop when a ceasefire is reached in Gaza.

Only on Tuesday, Hezbollah’s deputy leader publicly reiterated this position. Hezbollah is also facing some domestic opposition in Lebanon from groups who fear they are dragging the country to the point of no return.

A ceasefire has looked unlikely in recent weeks, talks had pretty much stopped, but on Wednesday night Hamas submitted a new proposal that reportedly walks back on its demands for an immediate and permanent ceasefire before any hostages are released

This had been the main sticking point to a deal. Benjamin Netanyahu is set to discuss this with US President Joe Biden on a phone call later today, as well as meet with his security cabinet this evening.
Having spent the past two days meeting government officials in the region, there is a desperate hope that a ceasefire will bring some calm on all fronts and then, intense discussions can start on resolving the Israel-Lebanon border situation.

But Israel still has 80,000 of its citizens displaced and insists it will not return to the pre-7 October situation with Hezbollah on its border – so many people think some form of Israeli invasion is inevitable.

The IDF is expected to transition to a new, less intense phase of fighting in Gaza in the coming weeks.

Unnamed senior IDF figures have briefed news organisations that they would like a hostage deal in Gaza rather than immediate redeployment to the Lebanon border.