November UK fashion spend is weak but late Black Friday could be to blame

Stepping back from the bullish reports coming out about Black Friday, it’s becoming clear that November as whole wasn’t an impressive period either for overall UK consumer spending or for retail sales specifically. 

Two reports on Tuesday rammed that fact home, although date shifts have to be taken into account too. Back Friday was right at the end of the month this time and that meant some activity linked to it was pushed into December (Cyber Monday was December 2, for instance).

The regular monthly Barclays report on consumer spending on payment cards said spend contracted 0.5% year on year while the British Retail Consortium-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor showed a retail 3.3% sales drop.

Looking first at the Barclays report, it said November’s fall was the first decline since July and significantly lower than the latest CPIH inflation rate of 3.2%.

Essential spending saw its steepest fall in over five years, down 3.1%. However, non-essential spending remained in growth, boosted by consumers spending on socialising and visiting the cinema.

After enjoying three months of growth, retail experienced a lull in the run-up to the seasonal sales period, down 2% “as November’s cold snap hampered high street footfall”.General retailers fell 1.7% (after growing 5.2% in October), while clothing and the sports & outdoor category contracted 5.6% and 11.5%, respectively.

That’s perhaps no surprise as 48% of Britons say they’re cutting back on discretionary spending, with 49% of this group reducing spending on new clothes and accessories. However, retail’s slowdown could also be a result of shoppers holding out for the Black Friday sale at the end of the month. Some 19% of festive consumers said they were planning to take advantage of the seasonal discounts during this period.

Back with the BRC-KPMG figures, the 3.3% retail sales drop came after last year’s November 2.6% increase. 

But it said non-food sales rose 2.4% year on year over the three months to November, albeit against a much better growth of 7.6% in November 2023. 

In-store non-food sales over the period fell 2.2% against an increase of 2.2% in November 2023 and online non-food sales fell a massive 10.3% compared to their 2.1% drop in November 2023.

The online penetration rate for non-foods also fell to 40.6% in November from 41.4% in November 2023.

Helen Dickinson, BRC chief executive, said: “While it was undoubtedly a bad start to the festive season, the poor spending figures were primarily down to the movement of Black Friday into the December figures this year. Even so, low consumer confidence and rising energy bills have clearly dented non-food spending. Spending on fashion was particularly weak as households delayed purchases of new winter clothing.

“Retailers will be hoping that seasonal spending is delayed not diminished and that customers get spending in the remaining weeks running up to Christmas. If not, retailers will be feeling the squeeze from both sides as reduced revenues are met with huge additional costs next year. The Budget, as well as the introduction of new packaging levies, will cost retailers over £7 billion extra next year. How effectively the government works the industry to mitigate these costs will determine the extent of price rises and job losses in the future.”