Voters go to the polls in the east German state of Brandenburg on Sunday, and Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces the prospect of being replaced by his own party if it goes as badly as the most recent regional elections.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) will be hoping to claim victory in the rural state, just as they did in Thuringia at the start of September.
In that election, Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) managed a meagre 6.1 percent of the vote, as the AfD blew apart the federal governing coalition with almost an 33 percent vote share.
On the same day, the neighbouring state of Saxony held their election, in which the SPD once again performed miserably. The party won just 7.3 percent of the vote as they were annihilated by the Christian Democrats (CDU) on 31.9 percent, the AfD on 30.6 percent and the recently formed ‘left conservative’ Sahra Wagenknect Alliance (BSW) on 11.8 percent.
If the SPD suffers a similar showing in Brandenburg on Sunday, Scholz’s tenure as leader may be near its end.
Analysts believe another drubbing could see the Chancellor replaced by the far more popular defense minister Boris Pistorius, echoing how the Democrats dispensed with Joe Biden when he proved to be an electoral liability.
The German federal elections are being held in a year’s time and as it stands the SPD under Scholz are tanking in the polls.
According to Politico’s Poll of Polls, the SPD are on just 14 percent nationally, five points behind the AfD and 18 points behind the CDU – Angela Merkel’s old party – on 32 percent.
The crumb of comfort for Scholz and the SPD is that according to most polls, the party is only trailing the AfD in Brandenburg by a point. Polling by the ZDF Politbarometer Extra put puts the AfD on 28 percent.
If the AfD win, but the margin of victory over the SPD is very tight, then most experts on the ground believe that that will earn Scholz’s premiership a stay of execution.
The Chancellor will be hoping for such a result come Sunday evening.