Carlin has nine Olympic and world medals to his name now, all them either silver or bronze.
Dutch rider Harrie Lavreysen is the undisputed king of velodrome sprinting having already defended his team and individual titles in Paris, getting the better of the Scot in both.
However, Carlin believes the more frantic nature of the keirin suits his style and makes it more likely Lavreysen could be defeated, as he was by the Paisley rider’s coach Jason Kenny in Tokyo.
“I think it’s my best chance,” he said. “It’s the way I race, I’m not afraid of a bit of scrap. And it’s the last race of the Olympics so let’s put a show on.”
In the individual competition, Carlin had to battle his way through some physical races to claim bronze.
He went elbow to elbow with Kaiya Ota in his quarter-final and thought he had been eliminated, only for the Japanese rider to be disqualified in one race and for Carlin to take the decider.
Then in the bronze race and while on a warning, Carlin rode into opponent Jeffrey Hoogland from the Netherlands in the deciding ride, which was controversially restarted.
That led to Dutch coach Mehdi Kordi describing Carlin’s approach as “rugby on wheels”.
But Carlin’s scrap for a medal after a remarkable comeback from injury to make the start line left him visibly emotional on the sprint podium.
“I probably couldn’t have done it any harder to be honest with you,” he said.
“The last couple of days have been the toughest of my career. At the top it’s so, so hard. It’s split by fine hairs.
“That’s what it felt like. Every race had to be do or die.”
The men’s keirin quarter-finals begin at 10:29 BST on Sunday with the semi-finals to follow an hour later, and the final scheduled for 12:32.