Russia launched another massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine on Sunday morning, once again targeting that country’s energy generating and supply facilities according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Rail communications were also hit.
It appears that the Russians launched 120 missiles and 90 drones in a “mixed package” designed to fool and overwhelm Ukrainian air defences.
The bulk of these seem to have been shot down or otherwise neutralised, but clearly some got through. Reported Ukrainian casualties comprise seven dead and “dozens” wounded.
For the first time in a while the attacks reached western parts of Ukraine, prompting NATO countries including Poland and Romania to scramble fighter jets and standby air defences in case there was any “overspill” over their borders from the Russian attacks. It has happened previously.
Thankfully it appears that such precautions were not needed on this occasion, but it just shows how NATO needs to be constantly on its toes.
Why attack Ukraine’s energy system again, and why now? Three reasons. First, by doing so Putin hopes to damage the Ukrainian population’s morale as we head into another winter where energy supplies for light, heating, and transport are at a premium.
In this he is likely to be unsuccessful, as the carpet bombing of British and German cities in WW2 demonstrates. Civilian morale proved to be remarkably robust in the face of extreme difficulties. In fact it may actually be boosted.
Second, Russia’s economy cannot sustain its war indefinitely in the face of economic sanctions and international disapprobation. Observers have stated that Russia‘s economy can bear the burden until the end of 2025, after which all bets are off. Putin wants to end his “special military operation” as soon as possible on favourable terms for him and Russia.
And the third reason is to be found across the Atlantic. Nobody really knows how Trump’s administration will act when it takes over, but the indications are that it will seek to bring the Russo-Ukraine war to an end as soon as possible. Both sides, therefore, want to be in a favourable position as and when negotiations open.
Put simply, Russia is in a hurry to consolidate its gains while Ukraine has no interest in negotiating while Putin’s troops are on its territory.
Compromise beckons, but both sides are playing their cards close to their chests.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk