It is day 1000 today of President Putin’s “3 day” Special Military Operation. Ukraine has about six weeks to get to a place of advantage before Trump’s arrival in the White House, but Sir Keir Starmer is still refusing to push on fully with Storm Shadow.
Sadly, this is classic political posturing, with officials only wanting to make decisions at the last possible moment. This just so happens to be the worst type of decision for military operations. President Biden has already unleashed the US ATACMS weapon system, no doubt emboldened by his lame duck status, allowing for at least some decisive action on behalf of the Western alliance.
Whoever holds Kursk at Christmas will be in the ascendancy for the anticipated Trump ceasefire talks in early 2025. I hope our leader realises, and quickly, that his own personal political needs must come after enabling Ukraine to survive this Russian onslaught, and to get into a position of advantage by next year.
There are 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops forming up in their assembly areas for the much-delayed counterattack into Kursk, who are sitting ducks for Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles which can most certainly turn the tide in this conflict and for once in Kyiv’s favour.
But it needs to be done now, today, not in a few weeks’ time. Great military leadership is about seizing fleeting opportunities, and this is one which Starmer may be about to butcher. The likely reason behind his relative inaction may be because he is cowed by the fear of Putin’s nuclear threats.
Still, we must keep in mind that the Russian leader’s warnings have always been bluff and bluster in this regard. Now he says that if a non-nuclear nation attacks Russia supported by a nuclear nation, he will escalate to nuclear attack. But this has always been Russian nuclear doctrine, certainly since the last major review in 2014 and restated by Putin at a press conference in October 2022.
Ukraine attacked Russia in British challenger tanks months ago, and his doctrine would have allowed him to strike back with nuclear weapons then. Quite frankly, if he did not do it with this level of provocation, I cannot see a scenario where he would, short of Starmer dropping a Trident missile on the Kremlin.
Perhaps Sir Keir Starmer’s “civil rights” legal conscience is getting the better of him, wanting to avoid battlefield casualties, but if Russia prevails in Ukraine, we may eventually have to fight the Russians in Europe with our tiny Army and our handful of tanks. Most informed estimates by reliable experts suggest the current British Army would last about 6 weeks if we have to go toe-to-toe with Russian armour, and for one who has spent the last 36 years on the battlefields of the planet, this is to be avoided at all costs.
The PM should perhaps stop bashing the farmers and the taxpayers and focus on bashing the Russians instead, or at least enable Ukraine to do so before it is too late.