Russian daily losses on the front line in Ukraine are the highest they have been since Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion nearly three years ago, the UK army chief has claimed.
Sir Tony Radakin told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme that Russian forces were suffering 1,500 casualties a day and were nearing the 700,000 mark for the total killed and wounded since February 2022. He described the cost of the war on the Russian people as “extraordinary”.
“[This is] the enormous pain and suffering that the Russian nation is having to bear because of Putin’s ambition,” said Sir Tony.
Previous Western estimates over the past few months have put Russia’s daily toll of dead and wounded at around 1,200, which at the time was also the highest rate of losses of the war.
Sir Tony did not say how UK officials had calculated the Russian casualty figures, but such losses tend to occur when one side is on the offensive.
He added there was “no doubt that Russia is making tactical, territorial gains and that is putting pressure on Ukraine”, though he added that the losses were only “tiny increments of land”.
Since capturing the eastern Ukrainian city of Adviivka, in the Donetsk region, in February this year, Russian forces have taken more than 300 square miles of territory in that area, advancing towards the city of Pokrovsk, a linchpin of the region’s defence.
Though their attack towards the heavily fortified Pokrovsk has now stalled, Russian troops have pushed along multiple points to its south, capturing the strategically valuable towns of Selydove and Vuhledar last month. The city of Kurakhove, between Selydove and Vulhedar, and less than 20 miles from Pokrovsk, is now under threat of being captured as well.
Further north, in the Russian region of Kursk, which borders Ukraine, Moscow has amassed roughly 50,000 troops, including North Korean soldiers, to retake the area seized by Kyiv’s soldiers in August and held ever since, according to Ukrainian and US officials who spoke to the New York Times.
While Ukrainian forces have fought off previous Russian attacks in Kursk, albeit losing bits of the region in the process, there are concerns that the size of the imminent counteroffensive, expected in the next few days, could prove more difficult to stop.
Most concerningly for Ukraine, the officials suggested Russia had not had to divert any of its advancing forces in Donetsk to make up the 50,000, meaning that Moscow can continue to push along multiple fronts.
When Ukraine crossed the border into Kursk in August, by comparison, it had to redeploy some of its troops defending Donetsk – a manoeuvre that led to accusations that the region was being abandoned.
As fears that US president-elect Donald Trump could force Ukraine to cede territory to Russia in order to end the war – a pledge that he has not made explicitly but has been discussed by several people affiliated with him, including his vice-president-elect JD Vance – Sir Tony insisted that Kyiv’s Western partners must stand with them for “as long as it takes”.
On Sunday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov praised Mr Trump for “talking about peace … not about confrontation”.
“The signals are positive. Trump, during his election campaign, said that he perceives everything through deals, that he can make deals that will lead everyone toward peace,” Mr Peskov told reporters at a briefing.
“He does not talk about a desire to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia, and this favourably distinguishes him from the current [US] administration.”
Analysts have been quick to point out, however, that the Kremlin’s allusions to the need for peace – and thereby the potential benefit of Mr Trump returning to the White House – ignore the fact that Moscow is the one perpetrating a war against Ukraine.
On Saturday night, Russia launched a “record” 145 drones at Ukrainian territory, according to Ukraine’s air force, 62 of which were shot down.
A further 67 were “lost”, the air force said – a likely reference to electronic jamming that caused the drones to veer off course.
At least one person was injured as Russian drones struck residential areas in Ukraine’s southern port of Odesa, local governor Oleh Kiper reported. Images showed homes and a local shop destroyed on Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, Russia’s defence ministry said a total of 70 drones were shot down overnight in Russian territory, including 34 over Moscow’s outskirts, marking the largest attack on the region to date. Russia’s aviation authority said flights were briefly grounded at major international airports including Sheremetyevo and Domodedovo.
A woman in her fifties suffered burns to her face, neck and hands after drones sparked a blaze in her village southeast of Moscow, local governor Andrei Vorobyov reported.
No one was hurt in Moscow itself, according to mayor Sergei Sobyanin, although Russian channels on the messaging app Telegram carried eyewitness reports of drone debris setting fire to suburban homes.