Russia’s recent claims of discovering 511 billion barrels of oil in British Antarctic Territority could be catastrophic for relations with the West as Vladimir Putin could use it to leverge control.
The staggering amount of oil amounts to 10 times the entire North Sea’s output over the past 50 years, according to the House of Commons Environment Audit Committee (EAC).
The oil was reportedly found in the Weddell Sea – an area of the Antarctic which the UK, Chile, and Argentia all lay claim over. Experts have warned that Putin could utilise these highly disputed claims to stoke conflict, specifically with the UK.
Cédomir Nestorovic, professor of geopolitics at ESSEC Business School, warned of a “fight” between the UK and Russia over the oil if the exploration is “made economically viable”.
He told the Express: “Russia will say that there is no ‘UK territory’ in Antarctica, so there cannot be tensions between the two countries … The UK will say that it specifically claims part of Antarctica and that Russia conducts exploration and drilling.
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“I do not see a large conflict between the two countries until the oil reserves are proven and the exploration made economically viable. Only in that case, there would be something the countries would fight for.”
Dr Danny Singh, senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Teesside University, echoed this concern, warning a “heated” situation could explode if Russia makes a land grab for the oil.
He cautioned that Putin is experienced in “power politics” and will take the oil discovery in his stride, “flexing” that his country can survive economic turbulence.
He told the Express: “Antarctica is completely different as it involves a treaty signed by the USA and UK, which means that any move into this territory would get heated.
“This is not Putin’s first rodeo in power politics – the oil discovery is a soft flex that Russia has the choice not to go after an abundance of wealth and that its economy is performing strongly, counter to what the West is saying.”
Russia continues to escalate its presence in Antarctica despite laying no territorial claim over it. It has established five research stations there since 1957, and concerns are now rising that could do more than just scientific research.
The territory is currently governed by The 1959 Antarctic Treaty, which decrees that no one country owns it. It’s designated as a continent devoted to peace and science, preventing oil developments.
Russia has signed up to this treaty, but in 2048, several elements of it will come up for contention, presenting Putin with an opportunity to make a land grab and use “scientific research” as an excuse to mask the drilling of oil reserves.