An asteroid with a 72% chance of colliding with Earth on July 12, 2038 is the scenario that Nasa has just tested to see how humanity would handle a massive space rock impact.
NASA organised its fifth planetary defence interagency tabletop exercise, inviting more than 100 participants including the UN, the UK Space Agency (UKSA) and the European Space Agency (ESA).
Faced with the challenge of an asteroid between 60 and 200 metres wide likely to hit somewhere between North America and Saudi Arabia in 14 years’ time, these organisations had to collaborate to save us or identify what might hinder the process and leave us bracing for the big impact.
Yes, it appears that even when faced with potential extinction, scientists and space leaders worry that politicians will fail to unite and work as a team to prevent it happening.
In September last year, Nasa’s OSIRIS-REx mission successfully brought back samples of an asteroid, named Bennu, to Earth.
Currently, it has about a 1 in 2,700 chance of colliding with Earth on Tuesday, September 24, 2182.
The chances of it hitting sometime between now and 2300 are even lower, at about 1 in 1,750.
While the most costly mission was estimated at just over $1 billion, global GDP is rapidly nearing $1 trillion, so it seems like a worthwhile investment although the NASA scenario predicted it was more likely between 1,000 and 100,000 people would die, rather than a mass extinction.
The lack of disaster management plans for survivors in the event of an asteroid strike is a major concern, suggesting that not only might politicians fail to prevent the asteroid, but we could also be left to fend for ourselves post-impact.
NASA has already demonstrated its ability to deflect an asteroid if necessary even though it inadvertently created dozens of smaller asteroids that may eventually collide with Mars.
While its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission has only been tested once, there’s hope that it could be repeated if necessary provided there’s sufficient funding from politicians.
Furthermore, NASA emphasised that its new Near-Earth Object (NEO) surveyor mission, a powerful infrared telescope designed to detect dangerous space rocks, is scheduled for launch in 2028.