Let’s kick off with some good news. The Twickenham experience has been a slightly variable one in recent years but the vibe inside the now-retitled stadium on Saturday was a considerable improvement. A deep rumbling bass shook the concrete stands, adding to the thunderous feel of the whole occasion. And broadcasting the referee’s musings over the public address – why has that taken so long? – was unquestionably a welcome development, too.
The positives do not stop there. What a dramatic endgame it was. And how skilfully New Zealand prised open the coffin lid having seemed all but dead and buried. If the match-turning try by Mark Tele’a with four minutes left was a stunning intervention, what about the towering touchline conversion from Damian McKenzie which ended up separating the two teams? How good was Wallace Sititi? This was not a match defined wholly by missed opportunities.
At some stage, though, England will have to stop hiding behind lessons and learning curves and face a few home truths. Starting with their late, late defeat against South Africa in the World Cup semi-final last year they have now endured a succession of hard-luck stories in which they have either relinquished a second-half lead or missed clear chances to win. Once is unfortunate. Four times in their past five Tests – against France and now thrice against the All Blacks – hints at other underlying problems.
Harsh, perhaps, when a potential match-winning kick has bounced back off the woodwork, but dealing in if-onlys is not how it works in elite professional sport. England are finding a raft of ways to finish second every week. Ultimately the scoreboard rarely lies: when the moment of truth arrives, England are not passing the test.
It is easy to say in hindsight, of course, but had England stayed calmer, waited for another phase, restored some order and given George Ford slightly more time and space to slot his drop goal, the postmortem could have been very different. But they didn’t. Harry Randall’s pass was too high and floaty and there were few obvious signs of collective composure. Nor can it be airbrushed away that Marcus Smith and Ben Spencer were both taken off when England were 22-14 up and largely in control.
It is even more sobering to consider that, when you aggregate the final half hours of their past three Tests, England have managed just three points in those 90 minutes. Give or take a questionable refereeing call here and there, that is never going to be enough to swing big games. It also prompts other wider questions: are England in danger, for instance, of developing some kind of mental block?
Australia may even quietly fancy their chances this Saturday if they can compete strongly in their air, play to space and scrummage hard for 80 minutes. There also remains a slight disconnect between the slick manner with which many England players attack for their clubs and the differing gameplan they pursue with the national side. Their only try at the weekend came via an interception and they might not still have been in it at the end had New Zealand not skewered a couple of first-half chances they really should have taken.
Saturday was a slightly awkward day, then, to have wheeled on England’s World Cup-winning squad of 2003 for a reunion parade. They knew a fair bit about late winning drop goals and Sir Clive Woodward, for one, could not resist a post-match swipe at his successor Steve Borthwick’s second-half substitutions, describing them as “absolute madness” and a “decisive mistake” in his Sunday newspaper column, writing: “Coaching at international level is about feel. It is not a simple game of mathematics.”
In other words, if Smith is England’s main man, he needs to be trusted to finish the job. Routinely hauling off the captain after 50-odd minutes does not seem to be helping much, either. The players are still clinging to the belief that good things will come to those who wait. “I’m quite religious so I believe that when the time is right it’ll happen,” Smith said. “Whether that be next week, the week after, two years, five years, who knows?
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“It’s not a coincidence that people win towards the end. Dan Carter played in his first World Cup final at 33. Usain Bolt, in his first Olympics in 2004, didn’t get out of the group stages. It’s part and parcel of growing up as a young player … the experiences we’re experiencing now are very painful but we’ll be better for them moving forward.”
Maro Itoje, again one of England’s most effective performers, is also convinced the tide will turn sooner rather than later. “I think we are very close,” the Saracens forward said, doing his best to boost the collective mood. “We have to lick our wounds and take our medicine at the moment but this team is building in a positive direction.”
Maybe but, as on the summer tour, this was another result shaped by a couple of costly scrum penalties and a relative lack of bench impact. Blaming inexperience is tough when Dan Cole has the small matter of 116 caps, even if the timing of Joe Marler’s retirement announcement does not obviously help. Borthwick could decide to retain his starting XV against the Wallabies but he needs some fresh oomph from somewhere.