England face a complicated task to qualify for the T20 World Cup Super 8s after their heavy defeat at the hands of old rivals Australia.
Mitchell Marsh’s side clinched a 36-run victory in Barbados, leaving England without a win from their opening two games. The first against Scotland was washed out after just 10 overs of play, and the defending champions cannot afford another slip up.
Australia have already qualified for the Super 8s, with three wins from three, but there is a contest for second place, which is currently occupied by Scotland.
Scotland beat Oman by seven wickets, and have already beaten Namibia, while England have just played twice.
How can England qualify?
Should England win both their matches and Scotland lose to Australia, the two British nations will be level on points at the end of the group stage, which would mean whichever side with the higher net run rate would go through.
Net run rate is far from straightforward to calculate. Ahead of England’s match against Oman, England have a net run rate of -1.800, while Scotland’s reads a healthier +2.164.
Ultimately it means England need to beat Oman and Namibia by a combined margin of around 120 runs or 12 overs (although the exact figures vary).
Can Australia and Scotland collude to stop them?
Australian fast bowler Josh Hazlewood made some comments earlier this week suggesting his team and Scotland might combined for a mutual interest – knocking England out of the tournament.
Should they do so, Australia’s captain Marsh is likely to face a ban under the International Cricket Council’s code of Conduct, but that only applies if they deliberately lose.
Australia are expected to rest a number of players for the clash, and should they score slowly, or if their rested players lack the venom of the starting XI, England could be on their way out.
How is net run rate calculated?
Run rate is the average number of runs scored by a team per over in their innings, and the net run rate is subtracting the opposition’s run rate from the other teams, with the winning side finishing on a positive, and the losing side on a negative.
It works the same way in the tournament, with the average over score subtracted by the average runs in overs scored against the team.
If a side is bowled out within the 20 overs, then the runs are still divided by the number of overs a side could have batted.