The UK tech sector is weighing the impact of a landslide Trump presidential victory at the end of one of the most dramatic election periods in US history.
Crypto, blockchain and Web3 businesses have sounded a note of optimism about the future under a second Trump term, but others in the sector have expressed fear over trade wars and tariffs dampening global growth, as well as stifled prospects for climate tech companies.
Trade wars could hit UK growth
Trump, the self-proclaimed business guru, made a real point during his first presidency to take a US-centric policy on trade, with major tariffs placed on transactions.
Among his campaign promises, Trump pledged to impose a flat tariff of up to 20% on US imports, rising to 60% for goods from China. The Chinese yuan and stock markets have fallen sharply since Trump claimed victory.
The UK’s Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds has already signalled fears, having told Politico that “any G7 trade minister…would be concerned about the talk of tariffs”.
Global Tech Advocates founder Russ Shaw has gone a step further, claiming that if implemented, “the tariffs Trump has proposed would have a significant detrimental impact on American consumers and businesses, increase inflationary pressures and risk a global trade war”.
Shaw said this impact would “clearly have an adverse impact on the UK tech sector”.
Many British tech firms that operate in the US market do so via officially established American subsidiaries, which can somewhat change the dynamic.
“It depends how companies are set up and their go-to-market proposition. There are some companies that are that are trying to sell from the UK into the US,” Milan Patel, CEO of London-listed marketing SaaS platform DotDigital told UKTN.
“We’ve got subsidiaries in the US, we’ve been operating in the US for a long period of time…so [a tariff] doesn’t necessarily apply because we’re not necessarily selling into the US, we’re selling from a US company to a US company.”
In the past, Trump, ever the Brexit sympathiser, has promised new trade deals with Britain. No agreement was finalised during his first term, and with a change in government in the UK, the prospects of a revival appear uncertain.
Climate catastrophe
Among the sectors that could be most hit under a Trump presidency is climate tech, an area that the Republican campaign was less than supportive of.
Trump himself has on multiple occasions denied that the dangers of climate change are real and has spoken out in support of the fossil fuel industries – notably adopting the slogan “drill baby drill” during his campaign.
Lukky Ahmed, founder and CEO of Climate X told UKTN that under a Harris administration, they expected “stricter regulations”, however, under Trump, they are predicting a complete “reversal of environmental protections, fundamentally changing the financial landscape”.
Ahmed called on businesses across all sectors to quickly “ensure their strategies remain resilient in the face of increasing climate threats”.
The UK government, meanwhile, has called for increased support for climate tech, paving the way for a potentially damaging rift in the relationship between the two allies.
Another crypto boom?
On the other end of the spectrum, much of the blockchain industry is optimistic about a second term for Trump, who took great care in courting the crypto vote.
“Trump has openly used crypto and NFT initiatives as part of his election campaign,” said Dom Kwok, CEO of London-based blockchain firm EasyA.
“This might be downplayed as a stunt, but there are few other politicians around the globe who have done anything similar.”
Kwok said the support of “Web3 innovation” from the next US administration could “elevate the US to an unassailable position as the global leader” in the space.
“If encouraged and cultivated, this movement will fundamentally reshape how we work, interact, and transact.”
The crypto markets have reacted to the news positively as well, with assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum and Doge all up this morning.
Shares in Argo Blockchain, one of the space’s largest representatives in the UK public markets, shot up as much as 17% in the first hour of trade in London.