There used to be a hidden wall at UK Sport’s old London headquarters where senior figures would meticulously plot Team GB’s medal charge before each Olympics. But with every passing Games there was increasingly less space on it, as the 30 medals Britain won in Athens jumped to 51 in Beijing, and the 65 in London was eclipsed by the 67 in Rio. And while the Goodge Street office permanently shut during the pandemic, the ambition inked on that wall remains: for Britain to stay an Olympic sporting superpower.
For Paris, UK Sport has forecast a medal range of 50 to 70. But the absence of most Russians, and an uptick in medal events, should mean that target is achieved with gusto. As its director of performance, Kate Baker, puts it: “On a good day that 70 is really within our grasp.”
Where are the British medals coming from? It would be easier to list sports where they are not. The usual suspects – cycling, athletics, triathlon, taekwondo and sailing – should all perform strongly. And there is an expectation that Britain’s rowers will have a huge bounce back from a disappointing showing in Tokyo.
And while Paris will be a final adieu for Adam Peaty, Helen Glover and Andy Murray, others should step up – including Alex Yee in triathlon and Matt Richards in swimming. Meanwhile, don’t be surprised if Emma Finucane wins three cycling golds, or if 800m star Keely Hodgkinson and pole vaulter Molly Caudery crash into the mainstream.
That Britain will have a hugely successful Olympics is hardly in doubt. But UK Sport has also added another ambition: to win well, by upholding the highest ethical standards. It is a welcome development after horror stories in British Gymnastics, British Cycling and elsewhere. But this week’s video of Charlotte Dujardin whipping a horse was a shocking reminder that more needs to be done.
Meanwhile, there is a broader question in all this. How much difference will British success in Paris really make? Successive governments, from Conservative to Labour, have repeatedly stressed that it will inspire the next generation of stars, which is true. There is no evidence, however, that it also makes the wider population become more active and less obese.
Indeed Greg Whyte, a former Olympian who has also worked as consultant physiologist in Olympic and professional sports, has a chart that shows two divergent lines since 1996. One with British medals going up, after lottery funding is introduced – and the other with activity levels dropping.
However, UK Sport’s chief executive, Sally Munday, insists that success in Paris will have a hugely positive and lingering impact on society. It is an argument the new Labour government is expected to be sympathetic towards as it decides how much to award UK Sport to pass on to sports to prepare for the 2028 Olympics, after it doled out £315m for the current Games cycle.
“Whenever we do public attitude surveys, Team GB and Paralympics GB are consistently in the top three things that make Brits feel proud,” she points out. “It’s such fantastic value for money, we feel confident that we will continue to get support moving forwards.”
Munday also stresses that some benefits are harder to measure, such as how Tokyo 2020 weightlifting medal winner Emily Campbell has transformed a lot of women’s attitudes towards going to the gym. “There is not a single silver bullet that will change participation and physical activity in this country,” she adds. “What we need is for the different government departments to come together to play their part. That’s about school sports. Sport in the community. And using sport and physical activity as prevention for poor health.
“If the new government grasps this, they will have people like us knocking down the door, ready to do our part in something that could be transformative for this country.”
after newsletter promotion
That view is shared by Annamarie Phelps, a former Olympic rower and the British Olympic Association’s vice-chair. “We know that the Olympics brings the nation together and that sport can make a huge difference,” she says. “It also helps our international relations across all sorts of different areas too. But when I was growing up there were swimming pools everywhere, and that isn’t the case any more.”
Phelps suggests that if we want to inspire the next generation, the government has to take the broadest possible look at the power of sport. “Facilities are getting older, they need reinvestment,” she says. “We have never really invested in school sport properly for as long as I can remember, and that’s a critical part of people’s first encounter with sport and physical activity.
“I know it sounds indulgent to say we really need more investment in sport. But there is a really strong case for it. We won’t see the results in the short term. But it could be transformational.”
For now, however, it is all about the thrilling action we will see across the next fortnight. Expect joy, exhilaration, and plenty of new heroes. As well as God Save the King to ring out repeatedly across Paris.