Public sector pay – including National Insurance contributions – accounts for a staggering 22pc of total government spending, the IFS notes. Yet many of the state’s workers would struggle to believe it, as public sector pay sits, in real terms, just 1pc higher than it was in 2019 and is still lower than it was in 2010.
Productivity has collapsed in the public sector since the pandemic; recruitment and retention are proving particularly tricky. Perhaps most worryingly, first the Tories, and now Labour, have signed up to an NHS “Long Term Workforce Plan” which is going to require tens of billions of pounds (unaccounted for) which will funnel into a clearly broken system.
The ever-growing expense of public sector pay – combined with the deep frustration of public sector workers – is not a new or unexamined issue. But it has long been a problem that has been tackled in two wholly unappealing ways: stand-offs between ministers and unions and paydays that fail to go hand-in-hand with reform.
The Tories showed the pitfalls of the first, failing to weather the many political storms – and strikes – which saw the NHS waiting list move in the wrong direction.
Labour’s recent actions have highlighted the risks of paydays that aren’t tied to reform: junior doctor campaign groups are already talking about how the decision to accept a 22pc pay offer will give workers the time and resources to stage more strikes in the future.
Neither pathway has a great record of success – and neither is affordable. But these aren’t the only options.