Incoming US President Donald Trump has vowed to end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours, but a peace deal may only benefit Vladimir Putin and his war-weary forces, a defence expert warns.
In a piece for The Daily Express, Nicholas Drummond, a consultant specialising in land warfare , said the two sides’ firm positions on territory will make negotiation difficult and may only serve to help Putin in the long-run.
He wrote: “In reality, Putin is unlikely to accept any peace deal that forces him to concede territory he has already taken.
“Similarly, Zelensky is unlikely to agree to Ukraine to giving up a single inch of soil. It also needs to be stated that any deal allowing Putin to end the war on his terms would be appeasement.”
Trump, who will return to The White House in January after a landslide US election victory, reportedly spoke with Putin on the phone last week and advised him not to escalate the war in Ukraine, reminding him of “Washington’s sizeable military presence in Europe”, the Washington Post reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
The Kremlin has denied the conversation took place.
Drummond continued that a ceasefire agreement, which Trump has promised to deliver when he returns to office in January, could bring short term peace, but “it would be a victory that would strengthen [Putin] at home and in the eyes of China, North Korea, and Iran.”
He also echoed concerns from analysts that a pause in the fighting could give the Russian leader “breathing space he desperately needs to rebuild his shattered economy and army”.
“China and North Korea’s massive military inventories could help Putin to regenerate his armed forces in less than five years,” he said, adding: “However long it takes, a re-constituted Russia would be more lethal, bolder, and less easy to deter.”
In an update in September, the British Ministry of Defense said Russia has likely seen more than 610,000 military personnel killed or wounded since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.
A plan being outlined by Trump staffers could propose European armies patrolling an 800-mile stretch of eastern Ukraine after the current battle lines are frozen and the war brought to a close.
The US and the EU have provided billions in military aid to Ukraine since the invasion began in February 2022, prompting a succession of warnings from the Kremlin, but Trump has consistently questioned how much money is being spent on Kyiv’s war effort.
Drummond believes whatever the outcome of talks between the two countries, Putin won’t be in the mood to forgive Western leaders for their backing of Kyiv.
“Even if Putin was content to halt his army where it is now and allow a buffer zone to be established between Russian and Ukrainian forces, he would still be active elsewhere. He wants payback for the support the West has given to Ukraine,” he said.
Last week, Putin congratulated Trump on his election victory and said Moscow was ready to talk to him about resolving the war in Ukraine.
He added what the Republican said “about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserves attention at least”.
“So we can expect Russian proxies to cause mischief in Africa and the Middle East. He will sponsor Grey Zone operations in Europe, including sabotage, disinformation, hacking, and he will interfere in our democratic processes,” he claimed.