Trump was declared the winner on Wednesday (7 November) after passing the threshold of 270 electoral votes required. Following the result, the US dollar rose 1.4% against the pound to £0.777 and 1.8% against the euro to €0.931.
However, one executive for a British footwear retailer said Trump’s election won’t have a huge impact on the business’s plans to expand in the US.
“The economy did well last time he was in power and stock markets have gone up [following the election],” he told Drapers.
“A lot depends on whether Trump will pursue the high tariffs – that will be an obstacle to bringing in goods to the US from China, but we have other [manufacturing] sources we could use.”
He added: “The only other downside will be Trump’s relations with the Labour party, which could affect US trading with the UK. But I doubt he will go as far [as that].”
Helen Brocklebank, CEO of luxury industry body Walpole, said North America is a huge export market for British luxury, representing 24% of all exports – roughly £13bn, and the lion’s share of this trade is with the United States.
“During the campaign, President Trump raised the prospect of a 10% (or at times even 20%) tariff on all imported goods. This would be a clear threat to the success of British luxury brands, and the hundreds of thousands of highly skilled jobs which our sector supports. Likewise, it is highly damaging for American customers, who will end up paying higher prices across the board.”
She added: “The additional challenge for our government is to navigate Trump’s expectation, backed by the threat of tariffs, that the UK align with his trade policies that target China, and the prospect of the EU enacting retaliatory tariffs on the US, should it fall under the auspices of Trump’s tariff regime.
“In light of this, there is a material risk that the UK finds itself in the eye of the storm of a tripartite trade war between three of our biggest export markets, the US, EU and China.”
Brocklebank cited the Boeing/Airbus dispute – which saw tariffs on whisky, cashmere and tailoring – as an example of trade friction. From October 2019 to June 2021, the British luxury industry was caught in the crossfire of the longstanding Airbus-Boeing dispute between the EU and US, with retaliatory tariffs of 25% imposed on products such as cashmere, wool and tailoring.
“Those who remember the impact of the Boeing/Airbus dispute … will know how damaging US tariffs on our products can be,” she said.
The director of one British premium clothing brand said the business is likely to have to absorb the additional costs if new tariffs are introduced.
“We simply can’t pass them onto consumers [by increasing prices]. When we had the tariffs during the Airbus-Boeing dispute, we absorbed most of the costs ourselves,” he said.
“I think we might see an uptick in orders as our wholesale partners rush to replenish their stock before [Trump’s] presidency starts. The potential of tariffs is one thing but we are more concerned about the prospects of a US-China trade war. What would the UK government do? How would it impact inflation?”
Paul Alger, director of international business at UK Fashion and Textile Association (UKFT) said it will “continue to keep a very close eye on the important UK-US trading relationship”.
“[UKFT will also be monitoring] the ongoing review of the US’s generous De Minimis rule, which allows US consumers to import goods to the value of US$800 (£625) per day duty and sales tax free. The review on this has been ongoing for sometime but I would be surprised if we did not see some changes here.”
Alger said in the run-up to the election there was a lot of talk about the potential for additional duty to be added to imports by presidential decree but “no information is available on which countries might be affected if this happens or whether this would be a targeted act against certain countries and industries or a more general campaign across all countries”.
“In the meantime, UKFT is advising caution for companies that are committing to landed US dollar pricing in 2025 for their wholesale business as there is the possibility that duty rates into the US could change without warning,” he added.