The motor and electric vehicle (EV) industries are poised for the result of a consultation on possible changes to the zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, lobbied for by carmakers.
Business secretary Jonathan Reynolds confirmed it would consult on the mandate, saying: “We get it. We get the seriousness of the situation and we get the urgency.”
As things currently stand, the ZEV mandate will see 80% of all new vehicles sales be of EVs, reaching 100% by 2035. This is a weakened version of the original mandate, which Rishi Sunak’s government reneged on—to much criticism from the EV sector. Each year, car manufacturers will be expected to meet targets for the percentage of their vehicles that are electric and pay a £15,000 for every sale over the line.
This year, EVs must make up 22% of a company’s car sales and 10% of its van sales, a metric that manufacturers seem not to have had issue with. However, 28% cars and 16% vans in 2025 must be electric, a proportion that manufacturers say is unattainable.
US carmaker Ford announced this week that it is cutting 800 UK jobs, calling the rules of the ZEV mandate “unworkable”, despite having pushed for a harsher mandate in 2022 when the quotas first came into focus. Meanwhile, the company that owns Vauxhall, Stellantis, announced it is shutting one of its two UK manufacturing sites.
The company’s announcement said that the proposed closure, that will also create an all-electric, sustainable vehicle hub at its Ellesmere Port site in Cheshire through a £50 million investment, was “made within the context of the UK’s ZEV Mandate”. The Luton site’s closure threatens 1,100 jobs, according to other media reports.
Trade association the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) published analysis finding that weak demand for EVs and the need to fulfil ever-rising sales quotas will cost the industry some £6 billion in 2024, and even more next year. The group called for government intervention, stating that while the automotive sector “remains committed to delivering a decarbonised road transport sector”, the original assumptions on which the ZEV mandate was founded have not yet been borne out.
Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said: “We need an urgent review of the automotive market and the regulation intended to drive it. Not because we want to water down any commitments, but because delivery matters more than notional targets. The industry is hurting; profitability and viability are in jeopardy and jobs are on the line.”
SMMT figures show 300,000 new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have hit the road so far this year, making up 18.1% of the UK’s automotive market, short of the 22% market share target for 2024. When the mandate was unveiled, the industry anticipated that 457,000 electric cars would be registered in 2024, which should have accounted for 23.3% of all new car registrations.
Market demand has not picked up as expected, while interest rates are steep and raw material and energy prices remain high. Other government moves, like the plan to extend vehicle tax to BEVs from April 2025 confirmed in the Autumn budget, further threaten the industry.
‘If others can do it, why can’t you?’
Charge point operators (CPOs), fleet owners and the clean energy industry are hitting back against manufacturers lobbying for a weakened mandate.
Responding to press reports that the Government plans a consultation on EV sales targets policy, Colin Walker, head of transport at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said: “The question for those who are struggling has to be: If others can do it, why can’t you?
“The reality is that the mandate, conceived and implemented by the previous Government, is working, manufacturers are competing to hit targets, driving down prices for consumers. As prices come down, sales are going up – 14% higher in 2024 so far than they were at this stage in 2023.
“[Weakening the mandate] would create regulatory uncertainty, with investors already warning it could delay charging infrastructure projects and undermine the transition to building the EVs that our major export markets increasingly demand.”
Walker recently stated, in response to news of the German-headquartered car manufacturer Volkswagen’s (VW) closure of three of its factories in Germany, that “anyone concerned about the future prosperity of the UK’s car industry that slowing down the transition to EVs will only serve to hasten its demise”.
Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme this morning (27 November), Vicky Read, CEO of Charge UK, the trade body representing CPOs said: “We want to see a resolution to this after a period of uncertainty. What I would like to see is three things: a strong mandate focused on maximising the number of EVs coming onto our roads so we can actually invest with confidence ahead of demand.”
She also stressed the importance of how that mandate is communicated to investors and consumers—“with conviction and with commitment”—amidst the spread of misinformation about EVs.
This is something that Paul Clarke, who founded the Green Car Guide in 2006, picked up on in Current±’s webinar announcement of the EVIEs shortlist, and again in a LinkedIn post responding to the news of the consultation.
“Better and more balanced communication about EVs is a key solution in the tension between the ZEV Mandate targets and consumer demand”, Clarke wrote.
COO and co-founder of charge point mapping service ZapMap, Melanie Shufflebotham, also shared her thoughts on LinkedIn: “Government needs to stand firm on the ZEV mandate for cars, and they should announce, communicate the restoration of the 2030 ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars as soon as possible. Why? Certainty, leadership, market growth.”