Thousands of job cuts in UK higher education could be announced by the end of the year, with university leaders claiming that the rise in English tuition fees has come “too late” to fend off redundancies.
Sector leaders expected more than 100 of the UK’s 140-odd universities to be making redundancies by the start of 2025, in what has been described as a “cataclysmic” situation where “everything is on the table”.
The announcement that tuition fees in England will rise for the first time since 2017 – from £9,250 to £9,535 next autumn – has done little to alleviate financial difficulties being felt across the sector. While this could bring in as much as £371 million in additional revenue, there is uncertainty about how many institutions will be able to charge it to continuing students, and the Office for Students has warned that steep hikes to employer national insurance contributions announced in the Westminster government’s budget will cost English providers £430 million annually.
Last week the English regulator estimated that almost three-quarters of higher education providers face being in deficit next year despite the rise in fees, after student recruitment lagged well below expectations. This week the University of East Anglia said it expected to cut another 170 jobs, with compulsory redundancies a possibility.
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Sir David Bell, vice-chancellor of the University of Sunderland, said the rise in fees reflected an “admirable willingness” from the government to think about the sector’s long-term health but said “it must be set against the employers’ national insurance changes”.
“I don’t think there’s really anything off the table, at the moment,” Sir David said. “If you’re looking at reducing costs by somewhere between 10 and 20 per cent, then no areas really are absolutely sacrosanct. I think that’s just the blunt reality.”
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Another vice-chancellor, who asked not to be named, noted that additional tuition fee revenue will not come until “after many universities have made their corrections to balance their books”, explaining that job cuts were being driven by a mix of under-recruitment of international students, inflationary pressures and the rise in national insurance contributions.
They said that by the end of the year they expected to see about 100 universities making cuts of roughly 100 people, adding up to a sector-wide total of 10,000. “It’s cataclysmic at the national level,” they said, adding that for many universities, “there is no flesh to remove, you’re back down to bone” after successive years of savings on non-staffing costs.
Courses that were registering declines in recruitment, including languages, humanities and the arts, could be at particular risk of cuts as universities prioritise higher intake subjects, they warned. This might mean that more regional universities will not be able to offer any courses in these areas.
“We are trying really hard to preserve our subject mix, but it’s becoming increasingly difficult as these cuts bite further into the institution,” the vice-chancellor said.
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Sir Steve West, vice-chancellor of the University of the West of England, said “nothing has materially changed” following the tuition fee announcement, and described how his institution was having to “absorb” £4 million in extra costs after the national insurance rises.
“I can’t think of any organisation that would not be considering everything,” he said, adding that the university has already had to pause the development of a new £120 million health facility because of the cost pressures.
A tally compiled by the University and College Union branch at Queen Mary University of London records that at least 77 universities have announced cuts, about half of all major providers.
Liesbeth Corens, a senior lecturer in early modern history who compiles the list, said increasing fees at the same time as national insurance contributions “gives with one hand and takes away with the other”.
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“Just throwing money on an already failing system isn’t sorting that system,” Dr Corens said, arguing that student number controls would reduce competition and be a more effective way to stabilise sector finances. “I’d be surprised if the places that are in trouble will fare any better.”
Among recent announcements, union members have claimed that about 130 staff members at Brunel University London, 270 at Queen’s University Belfast and 76 at Sunderland are facing redundancy.
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But Dr Corens said that jobs and courses across the sector faced “all-round slaughter”. Russell Group members, including the universities of York, Birmingham and Sheffield, as well as Newcastle and Cardiff universities, have been announcing cuts since the start of October.