As the war in Ukraine hits 1,000 days, Sky News takes a look at the situation on both sides and what might come next.
Nearly three years since Vladimir Putin’s Russia invaded Ukraine, the conflict continues to consume huge amounts of weaponry and cost human lives – for only small but steady territorial gains.
And major missile and drone attacks continue to target key Ukrainian energy infrastructure and claim the lives of civilians.
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Speaking to Sky News, defence and military expert Simon Diggins and John Foreman, former UK defence attaché to Moscow and Kyiv, discuss where Ukraine and Russia currently stand militarily, and what the next 1,000 days of conflict could look like.
What is the current situation on the battlefield?
When tanks rolled into Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s aim was to destroy the current government and effectively turn Ukraine into a country that focused on Moscow, not the West, Simon Diggins says.
Despite having so far failed to achieve this aim, Mr Diggins says where Russia has had success is in consolidating control over a “significant amount” of eastern Ukraine.
“[The eastern provinces] include a lot of the industrial might of Ukraine, and provide a land bridge to the Crimea, which the Russians occupied in 2014,” Mr Diggins says.
“From that perspective, they [the Russians] have probably succeeded, or they are certainly on their way to it.
“They haven’t completely taken control of the whole of those provinces, but they’ve got a significant amount.”
The provinces of eastern Ukraine occupied by Russia
Mr Diggins adds that in terms of their military position, Russian troops are continuing to advance, albeit very slowly, and they hold an upper hand in the amount of disruption they can cause through airstrikes.
Agreeing, John Foreman says at present Russia has the initiative in the war, and has been on top for the last year.
Ukraine launched a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August
The Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region may have taken Moscow by surprise, but it “didn’t shift the trajectory of the war” in Ukraine’s favour, Mr Foreman says.
Mr Diggins adds that Ukraine has “absolutely no chance” of retaking provinces under Russian occupation, but has proved that it is successful in defence.
Destroyed buildings in Borodyanka, Ukraine. Pic: AP
“Ukraine has achieved one strategic victory, probably the most important of all, which is, it is independent and Western orientated,” the military analyst says.
“But it has come at a cost – significant damage to infrastructure.”
What resources do each side have?
On Sunday, President Joe Biden authorised Ukraine to begin firing US-supplied rockets deep into Russia, meaning they will be able to use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for long-range attacks.
ATACMS have a range of up to 190 miles, but Mr Foreman says they will not help Ukraine go after Russian aircraft that are launching air attacks against many of its cities.
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‘The missiles will speak for themselves’
“Russia has used every weapon in its arsenal to try and gain advantage,” he says.
“It is using Iranian drones in a steady campaign to wear down Ukrainian civilians, and augmenting these with long-range cruise and ballistic missiles. Russia is also improving the explosive power of its drones and has used glide bombs to blast Ukrainian positions.
“We have seen greater use of Ukrainian-produced drones and cruise missiles, but not yet at the levels required to have a decisive military or economic effect.”
Mr Diggins says that the kinds of weapons Ukraine can already use – to strike Russian targets within its borders – are the UK’s Storm Shadow missiles and its French counterpart, SCALP missiles.
Ukraine is now asking for non-nuclear, long-range missiles and effective air defence systems – which could include the German Taurus missile, Mr Diggins adds.
The US eased restrictions on the use of ATACMS after Russia began deploying North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces in the conflict.
When asked about the deployment of North Korean troops, Mr Diggins says it is a “worrying development” but predicts challenges for Russia in the long term if it keeps using foreign soldiers.
“They are probably all disciplined, but they have not had any real conflict experience,” he says, adding: “I think the Russians won’t want to be seen to be overly dependent on them.
“There is a challenge with using other people’s soldiers in your fighting. You put them [North Korean troops] up against the modern West side, which the Ukrainians are now, and they might end up with very heavy casualties.”
File pic: AP
Kim Jong Un with a soldier. Pic: Korean Central News Agency/Reuters
What could the next 1,000 days look like?
Both experts predict a messy end to the conflict in the coming year, with neither side having achieved significant gains so far.
“In Europe and the US [regardless of who won the presidency] there is a drive to see the war ended, probably with some messy compromise,” Mr Foreman says.
“Winter will also focus minds in Kyiv on the merits of ‘settling’ for partition to ensure the survival of a free Ukrainian state.”
But Mr Foreman adds: “That said, without firm security guarantees or any pause in fighting or a ceasefire, Russia will be able to regroup and reattack.”
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Mr Diggins predicts that a form of ceasefire is likely to come in the next six to nine months, with some kind of “land for peace swap” agreement.
“The next tricky bit is will the West sustain support to Ukraine,” he says.
An explosion after Russian tanks fire in Mariupol. Pic: AP
Mr Diggins adds: “I doubt Ukraine will achieve quick accession into NATO. One of the conditions that Putin will need to agree to a ceasefire will be that they cannot be formally part of NATO.”