The consumer picture is improving quickly, with Asda’s income tracker rising faster than at any point in several years. Unlike in the US, where higher-for-longer interest rates are starting to bite, Citi’s economic surprise index is trending higher. The previous government’s national insurance tax cuts are boosting disposable incomes, utility bills have fallen fast, and wages are growing more quickly than inflation. Mortgage rates will follow interest rates lower. The shallow recession at the turn of the year is now firmly in the rear-view mirror.
The second positive is the relative political stability of the UK in an increasingly unstable world. In the wake of this month’s election, Britain is looking reassuringly boring. And the new Government’s growth focus, while harder to achieve than to promise, offers the prospect of a meaningful boost to sectors such as housebuilding and infrastructure. A more constructive relationship with Europe will provide a more positive backdrop for investment and growth.
A third reason to favour UK shares is the uptick in takeover activity off the back of the low valuations in our domestic market. A further trigger for more takeovers could be the turn in the interest rate cycle. Dealmakers have had to contend with rising rates for two and half years. More mergers and acquisitions will favour the mid-cap segment of the market as this is where the most digestible companies, on the most attractive valuations, reside.
There are other reasons why someone looking to increase their exposure to the UK market should begin their search in the FTSE 250. Historically, this is where the best growth has always been, and looking forward it remains the best hunting ground for high growth businesses. According to Goldman Sachs, the FTSE 100 is expected to grow its earnings by 2pc this year and 9pc next, while the equivalent numbers for the FTSE 250 are 15pc and 20pc. Despite this, both indices are valued almost identically at just under 12 times expected earnings.
Jackson describes the FTSE 250 as a “coiled spring”, because its performance relative to the FTSE 100 is so closely correlated to movements in the global cost of borrowing, which is poised to fall. When the yield on US government bonds declines, the FTSE 250 outpaces the FTSE 100 and vice versa. The imminent interest rate pivot should be catnip to mid-cap investors.
The UK may well be the most undervalued stock market in the world today. Sometimes the holy grail is hiding in plain sight.
Tom Stevenson is an investment director at Fidelity International. The views are his own.